Cy Young Photo Finish

This archived news story is available only for your personal, non-commercial use. Information in the story may be outdated or superseded by additional information. Reading or replying the story in its archived form does not constitute a re-publiccation of the story.

Let me tell you how my Cy Young vote will be determined. (Though this is only a fantasy since no  one in their right mind would give me vote.) I've heard many of my colleagues on 101 ESPN debate how wrong it is to have the Cy fall to the final day of the season.  I get the point generally but specifically this season it just points out how tight the race is.  For many of us there are three main categories that a voter uses to line up his top candidates...wins, ERA and strikeouts...the SABR-heads will offer to go much deeper with the numbers...and that is when it gets deep in here.

Anyway, back to my fantasy vote.  Let's go through the most likely scenarios...One, all three top candidates, Wainwright, Carpenter and Lincecum all pitch well in their final starts.  That means they dominate to the point that they all win, strikeout a bunch of guys and that their respective ERA's stay about  where they are now.  Waino gets it because he will have won his 20th.  And not just because 20 wins is a traditional benchmark of excellence for pitchers.  But because it's the one main category that there is real dominance between those top three categories.

Now, it gets interesting if Waino should fail tomorrow.  Should that happen and Carp and Lincecum pitch great it's real tight.  And I think you have to lean Lincecum.  ERA is really close but Tim is dominant in K's and on top in strikeout/walk ratio.  If both Cardinals stink and the Giant is good, it's his. 

For my vote the only way I go to Carp is if he finishes the Reds in style today and both Lincecum and Wainwright lose.  Fair, I think so, because it's virtually a dead heat.  I hope Wainwright wins tomorrow and there should be no debate.