Monday From the Betting Window: One NL Central Total Stands Out

I split my college football plays on Saturday. I shouldn’t have, but that Ole Miss-Alabama over robbed me of a victory despite the two teams combining for over 50 points in the first half alone. When Ole Miss started to run out the clock early the fourth quarter, I knew the seemingly improbable was going to happen. With the total sitting at 71, the under cashed despite ‘Bama scoring 62 points on its own and the Rebels scoring a touchdown on their opening possession. Brutal beat, but that happens.

For Monday, I only like one total. While I did have some leans in other games, this was the only one I loved…

957 Cincinnati Reds at 958 Milwaukee Brewers, 6:40 p.m. CT

One thing I like to do when targeting MLB totals is to look at a pitcher that is due for positive or negative regression based on his advanced metrics. Wade Miley owns a 2.23 ERA on the season but his 3.63 FIP and, more specifically, his 4.29 xFIP paint a bad picture of what could come moving forward. Over his 13 starts this season, he’s also allowed plenty of hard contact (37.7%), is walking batters at an 8.8% clip and owns a below-average strikeout rate of 15.8%.

On the other side, Anthony DeSclafani is talented and fares well against offenses that are mostly right-handed. That’s not the Brewers, who will throw Christian Yelich, Travis Shaw, Mike Moustakas and Curtis Granderson at DeSclafani tonight. Jackpot.

Prediction: Over 9

Season Records

MLB: 50-26-1 (66%)

College Football: 9-7 (56%)

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