As was the case on Monday, I only liked one game last night, which was the under 8.5 in the Twins-Tigers matchup. And after the two teams combined for zero runs through five innings, I felt good about the under cashing easily.
Unfortunately, the Twins scored a combined five runs in the sixth and seventh, while the Tigers added two more runs of their own in the bottom of the frame. With the score 5-3 in the bottom of the ninth and two down, the Tigers advanced a runner to third base (which would have squashed the under had he scored). Fortunately, the Twins secured the final out, cashing the under in the process.
The win ran my record to 51-27-1 on the season. Here’s what I like on Wednesday night…
969 Boston Red Sox at 970 New York Yankees, 6:05 p.m. CT
With David Price set to oppose Luis Severino, this looks like a pitcher’s duel on paper. That said, Price owns a 4.86 lifetime ERA versus the Yankees and the over has hit in four of his last five outings at Yankee Stadium. Meanwhile, Severino may be New York’s ace but he’s completed six innings just once in his last six starts and is 1-2 with a 4.24 ERA in four starts against Boston in 2018. Toss in the fact that the over is 18-6 in Chris Guccione’s 24 games behind home plate this season and this has sneaky potential to be high-scoring.
Prediction: Over 8.5
977 Kansas City Royals at 978 Pittsburgh Pirates, 6:05 p.m. CT
This is the first time I’ve recommended one of these plays but this is as good as spot as ever. Oddsmakers will post team over/unders for each matchup. It’s a way to play one side without worrying about whether the other team will contribute enough offense to push the score over the game total. Tonight the Royals are hitting in a pitcher-friendly park against a starter in Chris Archer that has not been sharp but still possess great strikeout (24.6%) and walk (7.8%) rates. They also lose the use of their DH hitting in a National League park so I’m not sure if they’ll provide enough offense to help cash the over. I do love the matchup for the Pirates, however, as they face Heath Fillmyer. In his 11 starts this season, Fillmyer has been one of the most hittable pitchers in baseball. His hard contact rate over those 11 starts is 40.0%. He’s also walking batters at a 10.3% clip and owns a poor strikeout rate of 14.8%. Starling Marte, Josh Bell and Francisco Cervelli should do enough damage versus Fillmyer to hit Pittsburgh’s individual team total of 4.5.
Prediction: Pirates Team Total Over 4.5 Runs
957 San Francisco Giants at 958 San Diego Padres, 8:10 p.m. CT
Cards fans will see how bad this Giants offense is this weekend when San Francisco comes to St. Louis. Tonight they figure to roll out a lineup where their first five hitters are Kelby Tomlsinon, Chase d’Arnaud, Evan Longoria, Nick Hundley and Aramis Garcia. Yikes. It’s not as if the Padres are the 1927 Yankees and Chris Stratton, San Francisco’s projected starter, has pitched well despite not possessing an elite skill set. If I lose the under to these offenses, so be it. But I’m willing to take the chance.
Prediction: Under 7
MLB: 51-27-1 (65%)
College Football: 9-7 (56%)