From the Betting Window, 5/14/19: A Potential Double-Dip Opportunity in KC

From the Betting Window

Monday 5/13/19 Picks & Results:

Diamondbacks -1.5 Runline +115 = WIN (+1.15 units)

Diamondbacks Team Total Over 4.5 Runs -125 = WIN (+1.0 units)

Yankees Team Total Over 4.5 Runs -145 = GAME POSTPONED

What we learned on Monday…

…nothing. It was a great night despite the Pirates taking a 2-0 lead against the Diamondbacks in the top of the first. Pittsburgh didn’t score again until the top of the ninth but at that point Arizona had put nine on the board. In fact, the D-Backs’ team total cashed by the second inning so it was the best of nights: No sweating.

Tuesday 5/14/19 Picks:

967 Houston Astros at 968 Detroit Tigers, 6:10 p.m. CT

The Astros’ team total is inflated but what the hell, I’m taking the over anyway. The Tigers are starting Ryan Carpenter, who allowed six earned runs in his first start this season after struggling in five starts a year ago. He’s a fly-ball pitcher facing a Houston lineup that is loaded with power righties that ruin the lives of left-handed pitchers. At some point the Astros will have an off night offensively; it’s baseball, it happens. But they scored eight runs last night in Detroit, 15 against the Rangers on Sunday and 11 against that same Texas team on Saturday. The ‘Stros are on a tear and poor Ryan Carpenter is about to be thrown into the wood chipper tonight. If Houston doesn’t feast on his soul, the Astros will certainly get to a Tigers bullpen that is one of the worst in baseball.

The Pick: Astros Team Total Over 6.5 Runs +100 (1.0 units to win 1.0 units)

971 Texas Rangers at 972 Kansas City Royals, 7:15 p.m. CT

Last night I double-dipped on the Diamondbacks and I’m going to take the same approach tonight with the Royals. Granted, this one slightly scares the beejesus out of me because Kansas City is…(how do I put this in terms everyone can understand)…uh…not good at baseball. That said, former Cardinal first-rounder Shelby Miller has been one of the worst starters in baseball. In seven starts this season, he has posted more walks than strikeouts, is allowing hard contact at a rate of 45.3% (that’s not good) and is generating ground balls at a 36.8% rate (that’s not either). Despite my dickishness earlier in this paragraph, while the Royals have a poor record their offense is borderline underrated. Whit Merrifield, Adalberto Mondesi, Alex Gordon, Jorge Soler and Hunter Dozier have a decent mixture of speed and power. Miller struggles holding runners on, so Hamilton, Mondesi and Merrifield could run wild assuming they get on base. The Royals aren’t cheap tonight, especially considering Danny Duffy will face a pretty dangerous Texas lineup. That said, the Rangers do struggle against southpaws so I’m going to pay up for Kansas City and hope for a similar outcome to last night’s Diamondbacks-Pirates game.

The Pick: Royals Moneyline -140 (1.40 units to win 1.0 units)

&

The Pick: Royals Team Total Over 5.5 Runs +110 (1.00 units to win 1.10 units)

2019 Betting Results:

MLB: 22-16-4 (+5.35 units)