From the Betting Window, 5/15/19: Rain Gods Won’t Save Orioles’ Hess

From the Betting Window

Monday 5/14/19 Picks & Results:

Astros’ Team Total Over 6.5 Runs +100 = WIN (+1.0 units)

Royals’ Moneyline -140 = WIN (+1.0 units)

Royals’ Team Total Over 5.5 Runs +110 = WIN (+1.10 units)

What we learned on Tuesday…

…that “we” can’t be afraid to play teams on the runline. I put “we” in quotations, but I’m referring mostly to myself. If you read FTBW yesterday, you know I loved the Royals’ matchup with Rangers starter Shelby Miller. Not only did I take the over on Kansas City’s team total (5.5 runs), but I also took the Royals on the moneyline. That said, did I miss an opportunity to grab extra value on KC’s runline?

Let’s look at the odds…

Royals’ Moneyline Odds: -140 (KC just has to win the game)

Royals’ -1.5 Runline Odds: +130 (KC has to win the game by two runs)

If you’re a $10.00 bettor…

Royals’ Moneyline -140: You wager $14.00 to win $10.00

Royals’ Runline -1.5 +130: You wager $10.00 to win $13.00

As you can see, I risked more to win less on the Royals’ moneyline, where as I could have risked less to win more on KC’s runline. Is this total hindsight? Of course, especially after the Royals pounded the Rangers, 11-5. If KC beat Texas by a single run, then I would have been grateful for playing the Royals on the moneyline. Still, I write all the time about how bettors need to find value in the odds. Thus, I need to practice what I preach.

Congrats to Brian, who told me last night on Twitter that he snagged the extra value with KC’s runline. Well done, Brian.

Wednesday 5/15/19 Picks:

927 Baltimore Orioles at 928 New York Yankees, Game 1, 2:05 p.m. CT

(NOTE: The Orioles and Yankees are playing a doubleheader on Wednesday. This pick applies to Game 1 only.) Remember on Monday night when I was ready to target Orioles’ starter David Hess but the game got postponed in New York? Well the rain gods won’t save Hess today. This is what I wrote on Monday regarding Hess and why I’m taking the Yankees’ over for their team total. Everything I wrote that day applies now, save for oddsmakers inflating the Yankees’ number a full run. The reason for that is because the wind was projected to blow in at Yankee Stadium on Monday night. The wind is expected to blow out to right field at 7 mph this afternoon, hence the adjustment from oddsmakers.

The Pick: Yankees Team Total Over 5.5 Runs -110 (Risking 1.10 units to win 1.0 units)

907 New York Mets at 908 Washington Nationals, 6:05 p.m. CT

It’s usually not smart to fade good pitchers but with the way the Nationals are playing right now, I’m going to roll the dice on the Mets. Patrick Corbin starts tonight for Washington and I’m not going to cherry pick certain statistics to make it seem like he’s not pitching well. In fact, he’s coming off his best performance of the season, surrendering three hits and striking out eight in sevening innings of shutout ball against the Dodgers last Thursday. That said, he’s had issues with walks this season (8.2% BB rate) and he has not fared well against the Mets. Michael Conforto is 6-for-14 with four home runs and nine RBI versus Corbin, who is 1-4 with a 4.83 ERA in 11 games (10 starts) against New York.

The Nationals also remain in a deep funk offensively, scoring 2, 0, 5, 0, 6, 3, 0, 3, 1 and 10 runs, respectively, over their last 10 games. If starter Wilmer Font can simply keep a struggling Washington team in check for five-or-so innings before the Mets’ underrated pen takes over, then I like my chances of New York’s bats either a) getting to Corbin or b) getting to a Nationals bullpen that has struggled for weeks…

The Pick: Mets’ Moneyline +145 (Risking 1.0 units to win 1.45 units)

…speaking of which, why not another double-dip? It worked on Monday night when the Diamondbacks pounded the Pirates and again last night when the Royals whipped the Rangers. If I believe Corbin will struggle again against the Mets and Washington’s bullpen currently owns an xFIP of 4.40, then give me the over with New York’s team total as well. Because Corbin is on the mound for Washington, oddsmakers have set the Mets’ team total at 3.5. With New York playing on the road, we’re guaranteed ninth-inning at bats. If they can get a run or two off Corbin, then a few more off Washington’s relievers, then the Mets could cash both plays late.

The Pick: Mets’ Team Total Over 3.5 Runs -105 (Risking 1.05 units to win 1.0 units)

2019 Betting Results:

MLB: 25-16-4 (+8.45 units)