From the Betting Window, 5/22/19: Will Cards finally bust out of Offensive Slump?

From the Betting Window

Tuesday’s 5/22/19 Picks & Results:

Blues Moneyline -175 = WIN (+1.0 units)

Yankees Team Total Over 6.5 +100 = WIN (+1.0 units)

Mariners/Rangers Over 11.5 -105 = LOSS (-1.05 units)

Mariners Team Total Over 5.5 -105 = LOSS (-1.05 units)

Rangers Team Total Over 5.5 -135 = LOSS (-1.35 units)

Astros Team Total Over 5.5 -110 = LOSS (-1.10 units)

What we learned from Tuesday:

  1. Too much liability in that Mariners/Rangers game. I wanted to target both starting pitchers and a pair of struggling bullpens, so I played the board. Naturally, after those teams combined for 19 runs the night before, Lance Lynn threw a gem and held the Mariners to only two runs. The Rangers also fell one run shy of going over their 5.5-run total, so the game turned out to be a mini disaster. It was a risk, I knew it was a risk, and it’s a risk that I’m unlikely to take again.
  2. The Astros’ over was a bad beat, especially in wake of the reverse sweep on the Mariners/Rangers game. Houston scored five runs in the bottom of the fifth inning and still had a runner on third with less than two outs. Not only did the Astros fail to get that runner in from third, but a bad White Sox bullpen held the ‘Stros scoreless in the bottom of the sixth, seventh and eighth inning as well. Tough night.
  3. This is why limiting your plays is paramount. Hindsight is always 20/20, but had I merely taken the Rangers/Mariners over instead of also playing their team totals, the Astros’ bad beat doesn’t hurt as much. Regardless, six plays on a Tuesday night in May is excessive. It was one of those nights where I couldn’t pare down my plays and it cost me.

Wednesday 5/22/19 Picks:

967 New York Yankees at 968 Baltimore Orioles, 6:05 p.m. CT

It should be another high-scoring night at Camden Yards. CC Sabathia has allowed more than three runs in only one of his seven starts, but he has also struggled with keeping the ball in the yard. He has surrendered nine home runs in his last five outings and this is the wrong ballpark to pitch at if you’re struggling with ding dongs.

On the other side of the pitching equation is Dan Straily, who somehow still has a spot in Baltimore’s starting rotation. He has been rocked in each of his last three starts and failed to pitch beyond 4 1/3 innings over that span. When he faced this same Yankees team on April 7, Straily lasted only 1 1/3 innings and allowed five runs.

New York has homered at least three times in five straight games in Baltimore and the over is 39-11-1 in the last 51 meetings between these two teams. Taking that a step forward, the over is also 18-7-1 in the last 26 meetings between the Yankees and Orioles in Baltimore and is 6-1 in Sabathia’s last seven starts versus the O’s.

The Pick: Yankees/Orioles over 10.5 +100 (Risking 1.0 units to win 1.0 units)

981 Kansas City Royals at 982 St. Louis Cardinals, 6:45 p.m. CT

I feel like I’m playing whack-a-mole with the Cardinals’ offense right now. When I’ve taken the over on their team total, that’s the day/night they’re held to four runs or fewer. When I avoid them completely, that’s when they break the scoreboard.

Whatevs.

Homer Bailey draws the start for the Royals in Game 2 of today’s doubleheader at Busch Stadium. He has nearly as many walks as strikeouts in his last two starts and he’s allowing hard contact to righties at a 56-percent rate. The Cards’ lineup is loaded with right-handers and with Bailey in poor form, this should be one of those games that the Redbirds score 52 runs. (Emphasis, on “should.”)

Meanwhile, Adam Wainwright will start for the Cards and as the Royals showed in Game 1 today, their offense can be sneaky good. Waino struggles against lefties and Kansas City has a few southpaws with both speed and power (Nicky Lopez, Adalberto Mondesi and Alex Gordon). Wainwright can be just as inconsistent as Cardinal hitters so maybe this will be the night he spins one of those six-inning gems. That said, if the Cards offense comes through, we won’t need much from the Royals for this over to hit. Having said all of that, I fully expect to be pulling my hair out by the seventh inning of a 2-1 game.

The Pick: Royals/Cardinals over 9.5 +100 (Risking 1.0 units to win 1.0 units)

959 Philadelphia Phillies at 960 Chicago Cubs, 7:05 p.m. CT

The wind at Wrigley Field is expected to blow straight out to left field tonight at 14 mph. Granted, it’s not as if oddsmakers are oblivious to this fact, which is why the total for this game is sitting at 10.5 runs. Still, we’re looking for any angle that we can find and this is one of the bigger advantages that’s available on Wednesday’s MLB slate.

The Phillies are also starting Cole Irvin, who will make only his third career major league start. The rookie southpaw will face a Cubs lineup that boasts Kris Bryant and Javier Baez, who have elite splits against lefties the past two years. While the sample size is small, Irvin profiles as a low strikeout pitcher that can’t keep the ball on the ground. Trouble lurks for the youngster tonight.

The Cubs will need to do most of the heavy lifting when it comes to cashing the over. Cole Hamels does a good job missing bats and keeping the ball on the ground, two things that work against our over. That said, Hamels is also allowing a hard hit rate of 39% to right-handed hitters and the Phillies have a couple of righty power options in Rhys Hoskins and J.T. Realmuto. While Bryce Harper bats from the left side and has struggled, he’s capable of launching a moon shot at any point as well.

The Pick: Phillies/Cubs over 10.5 -120 (Risking 1.20 units to win 1.0 units)

2019 Betting Results:

MLB: 30-26-4 (+2.60 units)

NHL: 1-0 (+1.0 units)