Tigers/Mets Under 7.5 -120 = LOSS (-1.10 units)
Braves/Cardinals Over 10 -110 = LOSS (-1.10 units)
Orioles/Rockies Over 12 -110 = WIN (+1.0 units)
Jakob Junis will start for the Royals in Game 1 of Saturday’s doubleheader with the Yankees. Junis went seven innings against the Angels in his last start, but he yielded five runs on six hits, including two home runs. He’s already faced the Yankees once this year, allowing five runs (four earned) and six hits over 5 1/3 innings in the Bronx on April 19. While Junis has pitched better at home this year than on the road, he is not set up for success this afternoon. It’s expected to be warm with the wind blowing out today at Kauffman Stadium, which is a bad mixture for Junis. His strikeout rate is low (19.1%), his walk (8.5%) and hard-hit (37.8%) rates are up, and he’s had issues with home runs throughout his career. Gary Sanchez, Gleyber Torres and Luke Voit are just three of the power hitters that are littered throughout the Yankees’ lineup. They should feast on not only Junis, but also a Royals bullpen that is allowing a fair amount of hard contact (39.1%) as well.
The Pick: Yankees Team Total Over 5.5 -115 (Risking 1.15 units to win 1.0 units)
In my write-up for the Tigers-Mets under yesterday, I noted that New York’s bats somewhat scared me in a matchup with Gregory Soto. That said, I surmised that the Mets were too depleted to cause much damage, however, so I ran with the under. Apparently they’re not too depleted, as they scored eight runs against bad Detroit pitching. I love their matchup on Saturday afternoon with Ryan Carpenter. The starter was hit hard in his first two outings this season, allowing six runs over five innings against the Angels in his season debut before surrendering eight runs in just four innings on May 14 versus the Astros. Opposing batters are hitting .381 against Carpenter, who has allowed two home runs in each of his first two starts. With the Mets, not only do we get a great matchup with Carpenter, but a horrendous Tigers bullpen as well. (Why I didn’t give that more consideration to yesterday when I took the under, I’m not sure.) As an added bonus, the wind is expected to blow straight out to left at 11 mph today at Citi Field. I’m going to call my shot: Pete Alonso goes deep today as the Mets score 5-plus runs.
The Pick: Mets Team Total Over 4.5 -140 (Risking 1.40 units to win 1.0 units)
We might as well take advantage of the Orioles’ horrendous staff pitching at Coors this weekend. On Friday night, the Rockies had just three runs through the first six innings of play. Then they tallied five runs in their final three innings, which included Trevor Story’s two-run walkoff shot (his second of the game) in the bottom of the ninth. If you want to roll with the over again tonight, I won’t talk you out of it. That said, I’m going to isolate the Rockies’ bats. Andrew Cashner will have starts in which he generates a bunch of ground balls and limits damage. That said, he owns an xFIP of 4.70, his strikeout (17.5%) and walk (8.7%) rates are both below league average and tonight he’ll face the Rockies at Coors Field. We’ll need similar production out of the Rockies’ bats tonight as they had last night, but I don’t think that will be a problem. Even if Cashner somehow keeps Colorado in check, the Rox still get to face a bad Baltimore pen in the back half of the game.
The Pick: Rockies Team Total Over 6.5 -105 (Risking 1.05 units to win 1.0 units)
MLB: 35-28-4 (+5.4 units)
NHL: 1-0 (+1.0 units)