Sunday 5/26/19 Picks & Results:
Marlins Team Total Over 3.5 Runs -135 = WIN (+1.0 units)
Twins Team Total Over 5.5 Runs -135 = WIN (+1.0 units)
Rockies Team Total Over 7.5 Runs +100 = WIN (+1.0 units)
A’s Team Total Over 4.5 Runs -140 = WIN (+1.0 units)
Monday 5/27/19 Picks:
909 Detroit Tigers at 910 Baltimore Orioles, 12:05 p.m. CT
In 46 innings of work this season, Detroit starter Daniel Norris owns a 17.1% strikeout rate and a 7.9% swinging strike rate. In other words, he doesn’t miss many bats. He’s also a fly ball pitcher that has allowed 38.9-percent hard contact over the last two seasons. The Orioles did a lot of damage over the weekend at Coors Field, scoring a combined 22 runs in their three-game series versus the Rockies. Big deal, everyone hits in Colorado, right? But even when you look beyond that series, the Orioles have scored no fewer than four runs in each of their last seven games. Along with Norris, Baltimore’s hitters will also have an opportunity to feast on a Tigers’ bullpen that ranks dead last in MLB in terms of xFIP (4.88 entering play on Monday).
The Pick: Orioles Team Total Over 4.5 Runs -105 (Risking 1.05 units to win 1.0 units)
903 Pittsburgh Pirates at 904 Cincinnati Reds, 12:10 p.m. CT ***Game 1***
In his last two starts, Nick Kingham has allowed 13 runs on 19 hits. He really struggles against lefties, allowing a 2.60 HR/9 to batters from that side of the plate over the last two years. Joey Votto, Jesse Winker and Derek Dietrich all bat from the left side and will be taking their hacks today inside hitter-friendly GABP. The Reds enter play today hot offensively, scoring at least six runs in each of their last four games, including 6, 6 and 10, respectively, in their three games at Wrigley Field over the weekend. Kingham is more inconsistent than bad, but Game 1 still sets up well for CIncinnati to score plenty of runs.
The Pick: Reds Team Total Over 5.5 Runs +110 (Risking 1.0 units to win 1.10 units)
913 Kansas City Royals at 914 Chicago White Sox, 1:10 p.m. CT
The wind at Guaranteed Rate Field is expected to be blowing in from centerfield today at 8 mph, which is slightly concerning. That said, one of my mottos is to target bad pitching and we have two poor starters taking the hill today in Chicago (not to mention to shaky bullpens that will follow said starters). Homer Bailey lasted just 1 2/3 innings versus the Cardinals in his last start, allowing five runs on four hits, which included two home runs. In his next-to-last start, he surrendered six runs (five earned) on eight hits in a loss to the Rangers. His biggest issue has been walks (10.6%) although he’s also allowing hard contact at a rate of 48.4%. The White Sox are a free-swinging bunch that strike out a lot, but they should score plenty today against Bailey. On the other side is Ivan Nova, who has been horrible at home this season (16.36 ERA). He mostly struggles with lefties, although this season he owns a HR/9 of over 1.25 to batters from both sides of the plate. Again, wind could be a factor today in Chicago and these offenses, while somewhat underrated, are also inconsistent. Still, the over is a perfect 7-0 in Nova’s last seven starts and cashed in four of Bailey’s last five outings overall. Screw, wind.
The Pick: Royals/White Sox over 9.5 -110 (Risking 1.10 units to win 1.0 units)
905 Arizona Diamondbacks at 906 Colorado Rockies, 2:10 p.m. CT
After costing me a perfect 3-0 night on Saturday, the Rockies (with a lot of help from not only the Orioles’ bullpen but also their offense) secured a 4-0 day for me yesterday with their late rally yesterday at Coors. Here’s hoping their pitching can help me cash the Diamondbacks on Monday afternoon. Jon Gray generates a lot of strikeouts and ground balls to righties but struggles to get the ball on the ground versus left-handers. Jarrod Dyson, Ketel Marte (Switch) and Eduardo Escobar (switch) will all bat from the left side of the plate today, so I like the top of the order against Gray. If the D-Backs can only do minimal damage versus Gray, that’s okay. They should mash a Colorado bullpen that is now third-to-last in terms of xFIP (4.65) on the season. We also get guaranteed ninth inning at bats with Arizona, as well as the best hitter’s environment in baseball.
The Pick: Diamondbacks Team Total Over 4.5 Runs -130 (Risking 1.30 units to win 1.0 units)
915 Cleveland Indians at 916 Boston Red Sox, 3:05 p.m. CT
Jefry Rodriguez is coming off an ugly start, allowing five runs (four earned) on seven hits versus the A’s. He also walked a season-high four batters over a season-low four innings. Rodriguez wasn’t terrible before that outing but he has struggled mightily against left-handers, which doesn’t bode well for his matchup with the Red Sox today. Andrew Benintendi, Mitch Moreland, Rafael Devers, Brock Holt and Jackie Bradley Jr. all bat from the left side. When Rodriguez isn’t facing one of those hitters, he’ll also have to contend with J.D. Martinez and Xander Bogaerts. The risk here is that Cleveland has one of the better bullpens in baseball (3.73 xFIP). But for me, this matchup is all about Boston’s hitters versus Rodriguez. If we need more than a run off Cleveland’s relievers, it won’t matter. We need Boston to do most of its damage versus Rodriguez.
The Pick: Boston Red Sox Team Total Over 5.5 Runs -110 (Risking 1.10 units to win 1.0 units)
2019 Betting Results:
MLB: 41-29-4 (+10.35 units)
NHL: 1-0 (+1.0 units)