From the Betting Window, 5/28/19: Waino’s Road Struggles, Coors & Texas Pitching

From the Betting Window

Monday 5/27/19 Picks & Results:

Orioles Team Total Over 4.5 -105 = WIN (+1.0 units)

Reds Team Total Over 5.5 +110 = LOSS (-1.0 units)

Royals/White Sox Over 9.5 -110 = CANCELLED

Diamondbacks Team Total Over 4.5 -130 = LOSS (-1.30 units)

Red Sox Team Total Over 5.5 -110 = WIN (+1.0 units)

Monday 5/27/19 Picks:

953 St. Louis Cardinals at 954 Philadelphia Phillies, 6:05 p.m. CT

It’s been a few days since the Cardinals have dicked us over, so why don’t we go ahead and poke the bear to see if it’ll still maul our face off. Adam Wainwright has struggled on the road this year, posting a 6.75 ERA and a 1-3 record over 25 1/3 innings of work. Five of the eight home runs he’s allowed this season have also come away from Busch Stadium and he’s also struggled with walks, issuing 15 free passes on the road compared to eight at home. Wainwright can be tough on right-handed hitters but again, I’m playing into his struggles on the road more than his matchup with any of Philadelphia’s hitters. Meanwhile, Nick Pivetta was sent down to the minors where he seemingly figured things out over six Triple-A starts. That said, he was hammered for 18 runs and 31 hits (including five home runs) in his first four starts of the season. As St. Louis fans know, the Cardinals are capable of hanging some crooked numbers on the board. As Cardinal fans are also aware of, this team is also capable of scoring runs and looking befuddled. Who’s ready to dance with the bear?

The Pick: Cardinals/Phillies over 10.5 -105 (Risking 1.05 units to win 1.0 units)

959 Arizona Diamondbacks at 960 Colorado Rockies, 7:40 p.m. CT

These two teams combined for only seven runs yesterday, but the pitching matchup sets up better for run production tonight. Arizona starter Merrill Kelly is coming off the shortest outing of his career, allowing four runs over just 1 2/3 innings versus the Padres last Wednesday. I doubt he rebounds tonight, as Kelly has low strikeout and ground ball rates. Coors Field will eat you alive if you don’t miss bats and you can’t keep the ball on the ground. Antonio Senzatela does induce ground balls at a good clip, but he too owns a low strikeout rate and struggles with walks. He’s also had issues against Arizona over his career, posting a 6.14 ERA in eight career games (four starts) versus the Diamondbacks, which is only a slightly better mark than his 7.27 ERA in three outings at Coors Field this season. The over is 4-1 in the last five meetings between these two teams in Denver and is 6-1 in Senzatela’s last seven starts overall.

The Pick: Diamondbacks/Rockies over 12 -105 (Risking 1.05 units to win 1.0 units)

973 Texas Rangers at 974 Seattle Mariners, 9:10 p.m. CT

Jesse Chavez will serve as the Rangers’ opener before Adrian Sampson takes over. The Mariners scored six runs last night against Texas pitching and could accomplish the feat again tonight. Five of the top six batters – Mitch Haniger, Kyle Seager, Edwin Encarnacion, Daniel Vogelbach and Jay Bruce – all have ISO’s of .250 or greater against right-handed pitching. Sampson doesn’t strike anyone out (14.3% K rate), doesn’t generate many ground balls (40.5% GB rate) and allows a ton of hard contact (47.5% hard-hit rate). The rest of Texas’ bullpen has a 4.30 xFIP entering play on Tuesday. That mark doesn’t put them in the bottom 10 of the league but it’s not good either. We’ll need another six runs out of Seattle to cash the Mariners’ over but they reached that mark last night and we’re also getting plus odds on their team total (hence, a little value for us tonight).

The Pick: Mariners Team Total Over 5.5 +110 (Risking 1.0 units to win 1.10 units)

2019 Betting Results

MLB: 43-30-4 (+10.05 units)

NHL: 1-0 (+1.0 units)