Angels Team Total Over 4.5 (-130) = WIN (+1.0 Units)
967 Minnesota Twins at 968 Detroit Tigers, 12:10 p.m. CT
After Minnesota was held to only three runs on Saturday at Comerica Park, this is a prime bounce back opportunity for the Twins’ hitters. Ryan Carpenter posted his first quality start of the season on Tuesday, holding the Rays to two runs on seven hits in seven innings to earn his first win. That said, Tampa has struggled against southpaws this year, while Minnesota rakes left-handed pitching (team wOBA of .366 against southpaws).
Getting back to Carpenter, despite his strong outing against the Rays, his ERA still sits at 6.23 over 26 innings this season. He’s a low-strikeout pitcher (15.8%) that is generating swings-and-misses at a rate of only 7.2%. He also struggles generating ground balls (35.2%) and is allowing hard contact at a rate of 42.1%. Minnesota should mash this dude today.
Finally, only the Rangers, Mariners, Orioles, Blue Jays and Cubs have a higher bullpen xFIP than the Tigers (4.41) entering play on Sunday. Detroit’s relievers don’t miss many bats and collectively allows a hard-hit rate of 38.7%. So even when Carpenter exits the game, the Twins should keep raking.
The Pick: Twins Team Total Over 5.5 (-130) = Risking 1.30 units to win 1.0 units
2019 Betting Results:
MLB: 47-42-4 (+1.0 units)
NHL: 2-0 (+2.0 units)