From the Betting Window, 6/10/19: Rays, Nats in Prime Hitting Spots?

From the Betting Window

Sunday 6/9/19 Picks & Results:

Twins Team Total Over 5.5 (-130) = WIN (+1.0 units)

Monday 6/10/19 Picks:

911 Oakland A’s at 912 tampa Bay Rays, 6:10 p.m. CT

Tonight the Rays will face rookie right-hander Tanner Anderson, who makes his first big league start. The situation reminds me a little of when the Cardinals called up Genesis Cabrera to take Michael Wacha’s spot in the rotation.

Like Cabrera, Anderson wasn’t pitching well at the Triple-A level. He’s the proud owner of a low strikeout rate (14.5%) and a high walk rate (10.2%) over his 54 2/3 innings of work. In 11 1/3 innings last year as a reliever, he allowed eight runs on 15 hits with eight walks. Like Cabrera, Anderson doesn’t figure to improve while stepping up in competition.

Granted, Anderson does generate a lot of ground balls when he’s on. That’s a problem, because the bottom half of the Rays’ lineup is filled with ground ball hitters. Still, through 11 appearances for Las Vegas, Anderson has been pounded, handing out home runs and doubles like they were fliers on the Vegas strip. The Rays should take this man’s soul tonight and I love that we’re getting plus odds with Tampa’s team total.

The Pick: Rays Over 5.5 Runs (+110) = Risking 1.0 units to win 1.10 units

915 Washington Nationals at 916 Chicago White Sox, 7:10 p.m. CT

The Nationals are feeling it right now. No team in the National League has scored more runs since May 23 than the Nationals’ 132. They hit four consecutive home runs in the eighth inning to break a 1-1 tie in San Diego on Sunday and they should thrive offensively tonight as well.

Chicago will start Odrisamer Despaigne, who makes his debut with the White Sox after signing with the club as a free agent last month. The 32-year-old owns a career 4.94 ERA and has never shown much strikeout ability at the major league level. While he’s pitched fine at the minor league level this year, he posted an 18.6% strikeout rate, a 10.1% walk rate and allowed a hard-hit rate of 38.6% in 39 big league innings in 2018.

With all due respect, Despaigne is a minor league pitcher. Tonight, he makes a start against a red-hot offense in a decent hitter’s park. Behind him is a below-average White Sox bullpen and with the Nats playing on the road, we’re guaranteed ninth-inning at bats. Let’s eat, Nationals.

The Pick: Nationals Team Total Over 5.5 (-130) = Risking 1.30 units to win 1.0 units

2019 Betting Results:

MLB: 48-42-4 (+2.0 units)

NHL: 2-0 (+2.0 units)