From the Betting Window, 6/11/19: Going Back to the Well with the Nats

From the Betting Window

Monday 6/10/19 Picks & Results:

Rays Over 5.5 Runs (+110) = WIN (+1.10 units)

Nationals Team Total Over 5.5 (-130) = WIN (+1.0 units)

Tuesday 6/11/19 Picks:

967 Seattle Mariners at 968 Minnesota Twins, 7:10 p.m. CT

Mike Leake is coming off his best outing of the season, allowing just one run on six hits in a complete-game victory over the Astros in Seattle. I don’t know what kind of witch magic he used in that game but I expect the complete opposite to happen tonight in Minnesota.

Leake owns a strikeout rate of 16% and has surrendered as many home runs (18) as any pitcher in baseball this season. When he’s on, he generates a bunch of ground balls, which is what he did against the Astros in his last start. That said, this Twins team feasts on right-handed pitching and owns the best power numbers of any offense in baseball.

With Minnesota playing at home and listed as a huge favorite, we’re not guaranteed ninth inning at bats with the Twins. Still, if they don’t quite get over their total with Leake on the hill, they’ll still take swings against a Seattle bullpen that owns a collective 4.76 xFIP entering play on Tuesday. Only the Rangers and Orioles have posted a higher mark.

The Pick: Twins Team Total Over 5.5 (-110) = Risking 1.10 units to win 1.0 units

977 Washington Nationals at 978 Chicago White Sox, 7:10 p.m. CT

I’m going back to the well with the Nationals after hitting their over last night. Washington owns the hottest offense in the National League, even not all of baseball, and is coming off a 12-run performance last night in Chicago. The Nats only had three runs through the first six innings of play but jumped on a bad White Sox bullpen for nine runs in the final three frames.

Tonight the Nats draw a matchup with Chicago starter Manny Banuelos, who struggles with both walks (13.5%) and home runs (2.45 per nine innings). Before beating the Indians on May 30, he had surrendered 24 runs in 15 innings while losing four consecutive outings. Banuelos’ middling strikeout rate won’t save him when he gets into jams tonight.

Unlike the Twins, who play at home, the Nats are on the road again, guaranteeing us ninth inning at bats. So not only do we get Washington’s offense against a bad starter, but we get a full nine innings worth of at bats versus Banuelos and the Sox’ struggling relievers.

The Pick: Nationals Team Total Over 5.5 (-115) = Risking 1.15 units to win 1.0 units)

2019 Betting Results:

MLB: 50-42-4 (+4.0 units)

NHL: 2-0 (+2.0 units)