Twins Team Total Over 5.5 (-110) = WIN (+1.0 units)
Nationals Team Total Over 5.5 (-115) = LOSS (-1.15 units)
913 Toronto Blue Jays at 914 Baltimore Orioles, 6:05 p.m. CT
There’s plenty of risk in backing an Orioles offense that hasn’t scored more than four runs in six consecutive games. That said, if Baltimore were going to break out, tonight is the night.
Derek Law is opening for the Blue Jays but Edwin Jackson is expected to get the bulk of the innings. Jackson has been dreadful. He allowed six runs over 3 1/3 innings versus the Yankees in his last start and has been torched for 29 runs in 14 2/3 innings during his four-game losing streak. When asked why Jackson is receiving yet another opportunity to pitch, Toronto manager Charlie Montoyo actually said, because “we don’t have anybody else.” Good, God.
Jackson’s ERA sits at 11.90 and while his FIP is better, it’s still 8.43, which is horrendous. Opponents are batting .383 off him this season and his HR/9 has ballooned to 3.66. He has struggled mostly with righties and the Orioles do offer some right-handed power in Trey Mancini and Renato Nunez.
Now, the Orioles have an over/under tonight of 4.5. In order to cash the over, Baltimore will have to score more runs tonight than it has over its past six games. Still, with Jackson taking the hill and Toronto’s bullpen sporting an ugly 4.70 xFIP, the Orioles are worth the risk.
The Pick: Orioles Team Total Over 4.5 Runs (-130) = Risking 1.30 units to win 1.0 units
MLB: 51-43-4 (+3.85 units)
NHL: 2-0 (+2.0 units)