Yankees Team Total Over 5.5 Runs (-110) = LOSS (-1.10 units)
963 Los Angeles Angels at 964 Toronto Blue Jays, 6:07 p.m. CT
Edwin Jackson is coming off his best start since joining the Blue Jays, allowing just two runs in five innings of relief in a win over the Orioles last Wednesday. That said, he had lost his previous four starts while posting a 14.73 ERA, so his outing against Baltimore is the exception, not the rule.
Jackson has a horrendous 13.9% strikeout rate to go along with an 8.2% walk rate, a 42% hard-hit rate and a 10.22 ERA. He has been annihilated by right-handed hitters, striking out just 9% of the righties that he has faced while also allowing a .517 ISO. Mike Trout has two home runs in six career at-bats versus Jackson, while Tommy La Stella (.237 ISO), Shoehei Ohtani (.216 ISO) and Kole Calhoun (.231 ISO) also offer power in this Angels lineup. Making matters worse for Jackson is the likely return of Justin Upton, who hit two home runs in his last rehab game.
Two other benefits to taking the Angels’ team over tonight: After Jackson leaves, the Blue Jays will turn the game over to a bullpen that currently owns a 4.50 xFIP. With L.A. also playing on the road, we’re guaranteed ninth inning at bats with the Halos.
The Pick: Angels Team Total Over 5.5 Runs (-130) = Risking 1.30 units to win 1.0 units
959 San Francisco Giants at 960 Los Angeles Dodgers, 9:10 p.m. CT
Giants starter Tyler Beede showed some strikeout potential at the Triple-A level but he has struggled since coming up to the big leagues. He’s coming off a no-decision against the Padres on Tuesday in which he surrendered four runs and five hits over 4 2/3 innings.
Tonight, Beede will face a Dodgers team for the first time in his career. The right-hander has allowed at least four earned runs on three separate occasions this season and has been pounded by left-handed hitters. That’s not a good sign with Max Muncy, Joc Pederson, Alex Verdugo and Cody Bellinger ready to feast from that side of the plate.
In 30 career major-league innings, Beede has also struggled with his control. He owns a 16.3% walk rate and will face one of the most patient offenses in baseball tonight. While Dodger Stadium is more of a pitcher’s park, it’s better for hitters than Oracle Park in San Francisco and Beede has struggled on the road this year. I’d be surprised if the Dodgers didn’t get to Beede in the first five innings tonight.
The only potential problem is that the Giants have an underrated bullpen. It’s not unhittable, of course, but if the Dodgers don’t get at least three runs off Beede, we’re probably not looking at a blowup spot in the later innings. Nevertheless, the Dodgers’ offense is set up to mash tonight.
The Pick: Dodgers Team Total Over 4.5 Runs (-140) = Risking 1.40 units to win 1.0 units
MLB: 52-44-4 (+3.75 units)
NHL: 2-0 (+2.0 units)