Angels Team Total Over 5.5 Runs (-130) = WIN (+1.0 units)
Dodgers Team Total Over 4.5 Runs (-140) = LOSS (-1.40 units)
971 Cleveland Indians at 972 Texas Rangers, 7:05 p.m. CT
The Indians have been maddeningly inconsistent offensively but they did score 10 runs last night in Arlington and I love their matchup tonight as well. The Tribe will face Joe Palumbo, who allowed four runs and six hits with four strikeouts over four innings in his first major-league start against the A’s on June 8. Palumbo was pitching in Double-A before being recalled and now faces a dangerous Cleveland offense in what is supposed to be another hot night in Arlington.
Granted, Palumbo did post good strikeout numbers (31%) in the minors but this is a huge step up in competition. Francisco Lindor, Carlos Santana, Jordan Luplow and Jose Ramirez all have good numbers against southpaws, so there’s no reason to think the Indians can’t rack up the runs again tonight. With the Tribe playing on the road, we’re guaranteed ninth inning at bats as well.
Regular readers of FTBW know that when targeting team totals, I like to look at their opponent’s bullpen. The Rangers’ pen currently owns a 4.76 xFIP, which is only slightly worse than the Orioles and Mariners on Wednesday’s slate. Hopefully the Indians pound Palumbo but even if they only scratch across a few runs, they should pick up the needed runs to hit their over in the back half of this game.
The Pick: Indians Team Total Over 5.5 Runs (-105) = Risking 1.05 units to win 1.0 units
MLB: 53-45-4 (+3.35 units)
NHL: 2-0 (+2.0 units)