Indians Team Total Over 5.5 Runs (-105) = WIN (+1.0 units)
917 Los Angeles Angels at 918 Toronto Blue Jays, 6:07 p.m. CT
The Halos have been posting big numbers in Toronto and I’m rolling the dice they put another crooked number on the scoreboard tonight. Clayton Richard starts tonight for the Blue Jays and while he’s coming off the longest start of the season, it was also only five innings…and he allowed five runs in a loss to Houston. Yikes.
Richard has not pitched well at Rogers Centre. In four career starts in Toronto, he’s allowed 12 runs to go along with 10 walks over 18 1/3 innings of work. In 15 starts this season, he owns a low strikeout rate (19%) and walk rate (13%) and he’ll face one of the most patient teams in baseball tonight in Toronto.
Granted, Richard relies heavily on ground balls and when ground ball pitchers get into jams, they get induce double plays to limit damage. But that’s a risk I’m willing to take, especially when said risk comes with a hot offense facing a bad starter that will be backed by a below-average bullpen.
The Pick: Angels Team Total Over 5.5 Runs (-120) = Risking 1.20 units to win 1.0 units
MLB: 54-45-4 (+4.35 units)
NHL: 2-0 (+2.0 units)