From the Betting Window, 6/24/19: Two Offenses to Target on Monday

From the Betting Window

Monday 6/24/19 Picks:

909 Toronto Blue Jays at 910 New York Yankees, 6:05 p.m. CT

With their team total sitting at 6.5 runs, we’re paying a premium tonight with the Yankees. That said, if any offense is going to put up a crooked number tonight, it’s the Bombers. Have you seen this Yankees’ lineup now that Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton are back? Goodgrief. They have two middle-of-the-order bats sitting on their bench every night. Tonight, the Bombers will face starter Aaron Sanchez, who was just blasted for seven runs (six earned) on nine hits in just 3 2/3 innings in a start versus the Angels. He was taken deep twice for a second straight outing and has allowed a total of six home runs in his last four starts. Yankee Stadium isn’t a good place to draw a start if you’re struggling to keep the ball in the yard. Coupled with a bad Toronto bullpen, I like the Yankees to score 7-plus tonight.

The Pick: Yankees Team Total Over 6.5 Runs (-105) = Risking 1.05 units to win 1.0 units

901 New York Mets at 902 Philadelphia Phillies, 6:05 p.m. CT

As I noted with the Yankees and their 6.5-run total, we’re paying a premium with the Bombers and we’re going to pay a premium with the Phillies as well. While Philadelphia’s total is only 4.5, the juice is sitting at -145. Nevertheless, it’s worth paying, even with the Phillies struggling offensively. During their current seven-game losing streak, the Phillies have not scored more than four runs in any game. That said, a matchup with Steven Matz and the Mets’ should cure what ails Philly. Granted, that same sentiment could have applied over the weekend with the Marlins in town, but whatever. Matz allowed five runs on six hits including two home runs in five innings of a bad start against the Braves. The left-hander is also the proud owner of a 5.02 ERA in seven career starts against the Phillies. Matz isn’t a horrible pitcher by any stretch, but he gives up a lot of home runs and stolen bases. The Phillies have also mashed left-handers this season, as most of their lineup is right-handed. I’m banking on them rebounding tonight after a rough stretch.

The Pick: Phillies Team Total Over 4.5 Runs (-145) = Risking 1.45 units to win 1.0 units

2019 Betting Results:

MLB: 54-45-4 (+3.15 units)

NHL: 2-0 (+2.0 units)