From the Betting Window, 6/25/19: Yankees, Phillies & Rangers Should Rake

From the Betting Window

 

Monday’s 6/24/19 Picks & Results:

Yankees Team Total Over 6.5 Runs (-105) = WIN (+1.0 units)

Phillies Team Total Over 4.5 Runs (-145) = WIN (+1.0 units)

Tuesday 6/25/19 Picks:

961 Toronto Blue Jays at 962 New York Yankees, 6:05 p.m. CT

If you took my advice on Monday night and played the Yankees’ team total of over 6.5 runs, then you may have bad-mouthed me halfway through their game against the Blue Jays. By the end of the sixth inning, however, things had turned on a dime. Aaron Hicks gave us life with his three-run home run in the fifth and then the wheels came off for Toronto in the bottom of the sixth, as the Yankees tallied seven runs in an eventual 10-8 victory.

I see zero reason not to keep riding the Yankees’ over, especially if the matchup is right. Tonight, Clayton Richard takes the hill for Toronto. The left-hander has allowed 16 runs and 20 hits over 12 2/3 innings during a rough three-start stretch. In his last outing (a no-decision versus the Angels last Thursday), Richard allowed a home run for a fifth consecutive start and also handed out multiple walks for the sixth straight outing. As I mentioned yesterday in my writeup about the struggling Aaron Sanchez, Yankee Stadium is not the place you want to draw a start if you’re struggling to keep the ball in the yard.

Granted, Richard does well to produce ground balls (57% groundball rate on the season) and he’ll be tough on New York’s lefties. That said, Richard has only struck out 11.4% of right-handers that he has faced this season, so guys like Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Gary Sanchez, Gleyber Torres and Luke Voit should put the ball in play tonight. I wouldn’t be shocked if Richard gave up multiple home runs before the Blue Jays turn the game over to their struggling bullpen. While their team total is a ridiculous 7.5, at least we’re getting plus odds with their over.

The Pick: Yankees Team Total Over 7.5 Runs (+110) = 1.0 to win 1.10 units

951 New York Mets at 952 Philadelphia Phillies, 6:05 p.m. CT

After seven consecutive losses and seven straight games of scoring four runs or fewer, the Phils took out their frustrations on the Mets last night, scoring 13 runs in a 13-7 victory. Now that they’ve busted out, I like the Phillies to stay hot.

Walker Lockett draws another start in place of the injured Noah Syndergaard (hamstring). In his season debut against the Cubs, he retired the first six batters he faced before allowing six earned runs while recording just one more out in a 7-4 loss. Lockett doesn’t profile as a high strikeout pitcher and walks have been an issue for the 25-year-old as well. That should mean plenty of base runners tonight for the Phillies.

Steven Matz is a better pitcher than Lockett and he got into trouble early and often versus this Philadelphia lineup last night. If Lockett has issues with walks again, then a big fly or two will get us the six runs that we need to cash the Phillies’ over tonight.

The Pick: Phillies Team Total Over 5.5 Runs (-115) = Risking 1.15 units to win 1.0 units

967 Texas Rangers at 968 Detroit Tigers, 6:10 p.m. ET

The Rangers have an excellent matchup with Jordan Zimmermann tonight in Detroit. Zimmermann returned from the injured list last Wednesday and allowed three runs over four innings in Pittsburgh. Since allowing just one run in 13 2/3 innings in his first two starts this season, the veteran has gone 0-4 with a 9.58 ERA in five starts. He also owns a 6.07 ERA in 40 career games at Comerica Park, so homecooking hasn’t been good for Zimmermann either.

Taking a deep dive, Zimmermann owns a 17.0% strikeout rate over his seven starts, coupled with an 8.0% walk rate. He’s a fly-ball pitcher that allows plenty of hard contact and home runs, facing a Texas lineup with excellent numbers versus right-handed pitching.

Two more reasons to like the Rangers’ over tonight: Detroit’s bullpen is one of the worst in baseball and with Texas playing on the road, we’re guaranteed ninth inning at bats.

The Pick: Rangers Team Total Over 5.5 (-105) = Risking 1.05 to win 1.0 units

2019 Betting Results:

MLB: 56-45-4 (+5.15 units)

NHL: 2-0 (+2.0 units)