Yankees Team Total Over 7.5 Runs (+110) = LOSS (-1.0 units)
Phillies Team Total Over 5.5 Runs (-115) = WIN (+1.0 units)
Rangers Team Total Over 5.5 (-105) = LOSS (-1.05 units)
905 New York Mets at 906 Philadelphia Phillies, 6:05 p.m. CT
Streaks are common in baseball. As I wrote on Monday, the Phillies came into the week having lost seven consecutive games and not once did they score more than five runs in any of those contests. That bad stretch ended Monday night, however, as the Phillies blasted the Mets, 13-7. Philadelphia came back with seven runs on Tuesday night, scoring five runs in the bottom of the sixth. Now that the Phillies’ bats are heating up again, I’m riding them again Wednesday.
Tonight, the Mets send Jason Vargas to the hill for Game 3 of their four-game set with the Phillies. The veteran is 3-3 on the year with a 3.75 ERA, as he’s out-pitched his preseason expectations. That said, he allowed four runs on four hits over 4 2/3 innings in a no-decision versus the Cubs last Friday. He has also struggled with free passes this season, as he owns a 10.1% walk rate on the year.
As I noted in my Monday column, the Phillies mash left-handed pitching. It’s one of the reasons why I liked their matchup with Steven Matz, who surrendered seven runs (all earned) on 10 hits over 4 1/3 innings of work that night. The Mets bullpen hasn’t been sharp either, as they’ve allowed a combined nine runs in two games, including three last night to squander a 5-2 lead.
Vargas survives on getting ground balls, but that means the ball will be put in play plenty. He doesn’t miss many bats and with the way Rhys Hoskins, J.T. Realmuto, Scott Kingery, Bryce Harper and Jean Segura have hit in this series, I like my odds of getting another over to cash in Philly.
The Pick: Phillies Team Over 5.5 Runs (-120) = Risking 1.20 units to win 1.0 units
MLB: 57-47-4 (+4.10 units)
NHL: 2-0 (+2.0 units)