Phillies Team Total Over 5.5 Runs (-120) = LOSS (-1.20 units)
967 Cleveland Indians at 968 Baltimore Orioles, 3:05 p.m. CT
Orioles starter Andrew Cashner has allowed a total of four runs in his last three starts, which include zero home runs. That said, he owns a below-average strikeout rate (15.9%) and is allowing hard contact at a 39.3% clip. I’m not buying into his resurgence, not with a 4.61 FIP and 5.10 xFIP. After they were shut out by not only Baltimore starter John Means, but also a bad Orioles bullpen, I expect the Indians to rebound this afternoon. Carlos Santana has been one of the hottest hitters in baseball in June and since the return of Francisco Lindor, this Cleveland offense as a whole has turned the corner after a slow start. With temperatures in the upper 90s today in Baltimore, Camden Yards should be a mashing ground for the Tribe.
The Pick: Indians Over 5.5 Runs -130 = Risking 1.30 to win 1.0 units
969 Kansas City Royals at 970 Toronto Blue Jays, 3:07 p.m. ET
Homer Bailey is similar to Cashner in that, he has pitched well of late (three wins in his last three starts), but I’m not buying into some sort of resurgence. The Blue Jays have struggled some against right-handed pitching but Lourdes Gurriel is red-hot, Justin Smoak returned to the lineup on Friday and has hit righties well, and Eric Sogard has a wRC+ of over 120 against right-handed starters. As the Blue Jays demonstrated last night by tacking on three runs late, this Royals bullpen has struggled all season. Thus, even if Bailey cruises early, there are runs to be had in the later innings.
The Pick: Blue Jays Over 4.5 Runs -135 = Risking 1.35 to win 1.0 units
MLB: 57-48-4 (+2.90 units)
NHL: 2-0 (+2.0 units)