Rays Team Total Over 5.5 Runs (-105) = WIN (+1.0 units)
909 Arizona Diamondbacks at 910 Los Angeles Dodgers, 9:10 p.m. ET
Taylor Clarke beat the Dodgers in his last start when he allowed only two runs on three hits over five innings last Wednesday. That said, Clarke has allowed 12 runs in his last 10 innings pitched on the road and a quick look at his advanced metrics don’t offer hope for him tonight.
Whether you like traditional stats like ERA (6.10) or are into more advanced metrics such as FIP (6.05), xFIP (5.59) or SIERA (5.08), Clarke hasn’t pitched well. Those numbers are also accompanied by a below-average strikeout (17.8%), walk (8.1%), swinging strike (9.3%) and ground ball (41.5%) rates, as well as a high hard-hit rate of 37.6%. There is nothing in his profile that should lead you to believe he won’t struggle tonight in L.A.
Clarke also has allowed a .325 ISO in 100 plate appearances to left-handed hitters this season. Over those same 100 plate appearances, he owns a miserable 14% strikeout rate. From Cody Bellinger to Alex Verdugo to Max Muncy and Joc Pederson, the Dodgers have no shortage of left-handed power.
Granted, the Dodgers are big money line favorites tonight at home, so we’re likely to only have eight innings of at bats compared to nine. Arizona also has three lefties in their bullpen, which negates L.A.’s power in the later innings. Still, with the amount of damage that Bellinger, Muncy, Verdugo and Pederson can do against Clarke, hopefully we won’t need more than a run or two against the Diamondbacks’ relievers to get our six runs tonight.
The Pick: Dodgers Team Total Over 5.5 Runs (-105) = Risking 1.05 to win 1.0 units
MLB: 59-49-4 (+3.60 units)
NHL: 2-0 (+2.0 units)