From the Betting Window, 7/12/19: Paying a Steep Price for Yankees’ Offense

From the Betting Window

Friday 7/12/19 Picks:

915 Toronto Blue Jays at 916 New York Yankees, 6:05 p.m. CT

Tonight’s MLB slate is a doozy. I see value in the Nationals and the A’s team overs, but neither get my gears grinding like the Yankees’ offense.

The problem is that the Yankees are expensive. They host Aaron Sanchez and the Blue Jays and even though their team total is sitting at a whopping 6.5 runs, oddsmakers inflated the juice on the over to -125. Thus, not only does New York have to score at least seven runs tonight, if the Yankees fall short of that mark we’re getting whacked with extra juice. It’s like back in the day when you paid a late fee on a rental when you wound up hating the movie.

Nevertheless, the Yankees are in a prime spot to rake. Sanchez only allowed two runs on three hits over five innings in his last start before the All-Star break, but that outing came against the Orioles. He was pounded for seven runs at Yankee Stadium back in June, which saw Sanchez produce a 0-6 record and a 12.00 ERA. He was good against Baltimore. He’s been terrible against everyone else.

Sanchez enters play tonight with a low strikeout rate, a high walk rate and a high hard-hit rate. That’s the trifecta of death for pitchers. He’s been terrorized by batters from both sides of the plate and tonight he takes the mound at hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium where the wind is expected to be blowing out to right-center. There’s already a natural jetstream out to right-center at Yankee Stadium, so New York’s hitters should put on their own home run derby tonight.

With the Bronx Bombers playing at home as a massive favorite, we’re unlikely to see ninth inning at bats from the Yankees. That said, the Blue Jays’ relievers have struggled this season so even if we need another run or two to get over the 6.5-run total, Toronto’s bullpen should be willing to help.

The Pick: Yankees Team Total Over 6.5 Runs (-125) = Risking 1.25 units to win 1.0 units

2019 Betting Results:

MLB First Half: 59-50-4 (+2.55 units)

MLB Second Half:

NHL Playoffs: 2-0 (+2.0 units)