From the Betting Window, 7/16/19: It’s a Bad Night to be a Starting Pitcher

From the Betting Window

Monday 7/15/19 Picks & Results:

Red Sox Over 5.5 Runs (-135) = WIN (+1.0 units)

Dodgers Over 5.5 Runs (-105) = WIN (+1.0 units)

Tuesday 7/16/19 Picks:

901 Los Angeles Dodgers at 902 Philadelphia Phillies, 6:05 p.m. CT

I’m going right back to the well with the Dodgers after they scored 16 runs last night in Philly. Vince Velasquez is 0-2 with a 5.94 ERA in his last four starts (16 2/3 innings) and owns an ugly 7.91 ERA and 1.76 WHIP in seven career appearances (three starts) against L.A. He’s a fly-ball pitcher that walks too many batters and gives up a ton of hard contact. Good luck against this righty-mashing lineup for the Dodgers, Vincent.

The Pick: Dodgers Over 5.5 Runs (-130) = Risking 1.30 units to win 1.0 units

917 Detroit Tigers at 918 Cleveland Indians, 6:10 p.m. CT

The Indians are one of those teams where I feel like I’m playing Russian Roulette when it comes to backing their offense. That said, Ryan Carpenter is starting tonight for the Tigers and he’ll be backed up by Detroit’s horrendous bullpen. So why the hell not? Carpenter started against this same Cleveland team back on June 14 and allowed eight runs (six earned) over three innings. Much like many of the pitchers that I’m targeting tonight, Carpenter is a fly-ball pitcher that allows a ton of hard contact and doesn’t strike anyone out. Hello, runs! He also owns an ERA above 8.00 and will face one of the better lefty-hitting offenses in baseball tonight.

The Pick: Indians Over 6.5 Runs (+110) = Risking 1.0 units to win 1.10 units

929 New York Mets at 930 Minnesota Twins, 7:10 p.m. CT

The Twins will see Steven Matz tonight instead of Zack Wheeler, who was placed on the 10-day injured list on Monday due to right shoulder fatigue. That’s great news for us and the Twins. Matz pitched solely out of the bullpen in July but surrendered 14 runs in just 11 1/3 innings over his last three starts. Matz isn’t terrible but this is a bad draw for him tonight. Minnesota has the No. 1 offense in baseball when it comes to ISO against left-handed pitching. Nelson Cruz, Eddie Rosario, Mitch Garver and Marwin Gonzalez all take the souls of southpaws and I don’t see why Matz will be any different tonight. Bonus: The Mets bullpen is a dumpster fire, so even if we need a couple of runs in the second half tonight, the Twins should be able to pick at the carcasses that are New York’s relievers.

The Pick: Twins Over 5.5 Runs (-120) = Risking 1.20 units to win 1.0 units

911 San Francisco Giants at 912 Colorado Rockies, 7:40 p.m. CT

If you listened to “The Turn” today on 101 ESPN, then you may have heard me talk up the Giants offense. If you took my advice and played the Giants’ over by itself, great. I still love that play. That said, after taking a deeper look at tonight’s matchup, both of these offenses should rake. 

Let’s start with the Giants. Colorado starter Peter Lambert has allowed 20 runs and 30 hits over his last 17 2/3 innings. That’s unfathomable, even for a Rockies starter. The Giants have stunk offensively all season but for some reason, they’ve masqueraded as the Yankees over their last 10 games, averaging 7.3 runs per contest over that span. 

Now the Rockies. Drew Pomeranz starts tonight for San Francisco and he’s a fly-ball pitcher that gives up a ton of walks and hard contact. The Rockies have struggled offensively lately but they also feast on soft-tossing lefties. Charlie Blackmon, Trevor Story, David Dahl, Nolan Arenado and Ian Desmond have all posted elite numbers against southpaws this season.

If you like baseball games that produce football scores, this matchup is for you. I wouldn’t be shocked if both of these teams reached double digits in runs tonight.

The Pick: Giants/Rockies OVER 14.5 Runs (-110) = Risking 1.10 units to win 1.0 units

2019 Betting Results:

MLB First Half: 59-50-4 (+2.55 units)

MLB Second Half: 3-2 (+0.40 units)

NHL Playoffs: 2-0 (+2.0 units)