From the Betting Window, 7/18/19: Perfect Hitting Conditions at Kauffman?

From the Betting Window

Wednesday 7/17/19 Picks & Results:

Dodgers Over 6.5 Runs (+100) = WIN (+1.0 units)

Nationals/Orioles OVER 11.5 (-105) = LOSS (-1.05 units)

Red Sox Over 6.5 Runs (-115) = LOSS (-1.15 units)

Thursday 7/18/19 Picks:

913 Chicago White Sox at 914 Kansas City Royals, 12:15 p.m. CT

These two teams stink offensively, with Kansas City ranking 22nd in runs scored and Chicago currently sitting 28th. That said, the Royals have swung hot bats recently, scoring 7, 11, 5 and 8 runs, respectively, over their last four games. Last night’s matchup between these two teams was trending under until the top of the ninth when A.J. Reed hit a pinch-hit three-run home run off Royals reliever Wily Peralta. A 7-2 game turned into a 7-5 game with one swing of the bat thanks to shoddy relief work by Kansas City.

That’s one of the reasons why I like the over this afternoon at Kauffman Stadium. The Royals’ bullpen currently sports a 4.56 xFIP on the season and the White Sox’ mark of 4.32 isn’t much better. If just one reliever has a bad inning, it could lean to a crooked number for one of these offenses.

Neither starter today elicits much confidence either. In his two starts this season, Ross Detwiler owns a strikeout rate below 10%. Brad Keller is in the same boat in terms of being a low-strikeout pitcher, but he also has a high walk rate and if he doesn’t keep the ball on the ground there’s blowup potential here.

Finally, while weather forecasts for games can be inconsistent, it’s at least worth noting that there’s 13 mph winds blowing out to left-center today at Kauffman. 

The Pick: White Sox/Royals OVER 11 (+100) = Risking 1.0 units to win 1.0 units

2019 Betting Results:

MLB First Half: 59-50-4 (+2.55 units)

MLB Second Half: 6-6 (-1.0 units)

NHL Playoffs: 2-0 (+2.0 units)