Diamondbacks OVER 5.5 Runs (+105) = WIN (+1.05 units)
961 Cleveland Indians at 962 Toronto Blue Jays, 6:07 p.m. CT
The Tribe will take their hacks against arguably the worst starting pitcher on Tuesday night’s MLB slate. Aaron Sanchez is now 0-13 in his last 15 outings and has posted an ERA of 7.98. He has not completed six innings in any of his last seven starts and allowed four runs over five innings in a loss to the Red Sox last Wednesday.
Taking things a step further, Sanchez has the highest walk rate among qualified starters in baseball. In 21 starts this season, he also owns a strikeout rate of just 17%. When you factor both things into the equation tonight, the base paths should be littered with Cleveland players.
Speaking of Cleveland’s offense, the Indians have scored the fourth-most runs (99) in the month of July behind only the Giants (121), Red Sox (112) and Astros (110). When you shrink the sample down to the last seven days, the Indians still rank fifth with 43 runs, behind only the Diamondbacks (52), Brewers (50), Yankees (48) and Astros (45). Francisco Lindor, Carlos Santana, Jose Ramirez and Jason Kipnis comprise an offense with high hard contact rates that should pepper not only a bad Toronto starter in Sanchez, but also a Blue Jays bullpen that ranks as the sixth-worst in terms of xFIP heading into play on Tuesday.
Finally, with the Indians also playing on the road, we’re guaranteed ninth inning at bats. Hopefully we won’t need them, however. We didn’t last night as the Diamondbacks already had their sixth run of the night by the end of the fourth inning.
The Pick: Indians Over 5.5 Runs (-105) = Risking 1.05 units to win 1.0 units
MLB First Half: 59-50-4 (+2.55 units)
MLB Second Half: 9-6-1 (+2.05 units)
NHL Playoffs: 2-0 (+2.0 units)