From the Betting Window, 8/11/19: Will AL East Teams Mash on Sunday?

From the Betting Window

Sunday MLB Picks for 8/11/19:

915 Los Angeles Angels at 916 Boston Red Sox, 12:05 p.m. CT

These two teams combined to score only three runs in the opening game of this series but a total of 36 runs have been scored at Fenway Park the past two days. Given the matchup and surrounding factors, runs shouldn’t be at a premium today in Boston either.

Andrew Cashner starts today for the Red Sox, which is a positive for the Angels and over bettors. Over his last 28 2/3 innings, Cashner owns a 7.53 ERA, a 1.74 WHIP and has surrendered seven home runs. He’s allowed six earned runs in back-to-back starts and served up three home runs to the Royals in his last outing.

The other side of the pitching equation is more obscure. Patrick Sandoval toes the rubber for the Halos after allowing two runs on three hits while striking out eight in five innings versus the Reds. Those are the only five innings he’s thrown at the big-league level. That said, he’s a lefty facing a dangerous Boston lineup at Fenway with the wind blowing out to right field. I’ll take my chances that Sandoval doesn’t spin in a seven-inning gem and ruin the over.

In the past nine meetings between these two clubs, the over is 6-2-1. The over is also 8-2 in the REd Sox’ last 10 games versus a left-handed starter and has hit in 21 of their last 28 home games. Finally, the over is 4-1 in the Angels’ last five games overall.

The Pick: Angels/Red Sox Over 11.5 (-115) = Risking 1.15 units to win 1.0 units

919 New York Yankees at 920 Toronto Blue Jays, 12:07 p.m. CT

The under has been profitable in this series (2-1) and in previous meetings between these two teams (35-17 in the last 52 meetings at Rogers Centre). That said, today’s matchup offers bettors an opportunity to buck those trends.

Yankees starter Masahiro Tanaka has always been prone to giving up home runs but he’s really had a rough five-game stretch. Over his last 24 2/3 innings of work (five starts), Tanaka owns a 9.49 ERA and a 1.91 WHIP. Furthermore, he’s allowed six home runs while striking out only 20 batters.

Tanaka has only been slightly worse than the other starter in today’s game, Trent Thornton. The Blue Jays starter owns a 7.20 ERA and 1.45 WHIP over his last 20 innings of work, which also includes five home runs allowed. It’s no wonder that the over is 12-3-1 in Thornton’s last 16 starts, including 4-1 in his last five outings at home.

Granted, Toronto’s offense carries a high risk of striking out but with Tanaka in poor form, I’m less concerned about the Blue Jays pulling their weight this afternoon. And while the current Yankee lineup is watered down, Gary Sanchez is back and the club still has a team wRC+ of 117. New York is always capable of busting out offensively.

The Pick: Yankees/Blue Jays OVER 11 (-110) = Risking 1.10 units to win 1.0 units

2019 Betting Results:

MLB First Half: 59-50-4 (+2.55 units)

MLB Second Half: 12-14-1 (-3.80 units)

NHL Playoffs: 2-0 (+2.0 units)