College Football Week 6 Selections:
Michigan moved offensive coordinator Josh Gattis down to the sideline after two games in the press box and the Wolverines set season highs in total yards (476), touchdowns (seven) and points (52) last week. That’ll do it. All fixed. Oh, did I mention their opponent was Rutgers? Let’s not overthink things here. Iowa is looking to knock off Michigan for a third consecutive time and improve to 5-0 for the first time since 2014. The Wolverines have yet to look component offensively against opponents with a pulse and the Hawkeyes are once again stout defensively this season. Iowa QB Nate Stanley has eight touchdown passes and no interceptions on the season and the Hawkeyes’ offensive line is one of the better units in the country. Meanwhile, the Wolverines lack speed defensively and aren’t nearly as good on that side as they have been in recent years under Jim Harbaugh. Speaking of Harbaugh, he’s 1-7 against the spread when facing opponents with winning records. I’m taking the better team getting points.
College Football Week 6 Selection: Iowa Hawkeyes +4
Louisville junior quarterback Jawon Pass has missed the last two games due to an injury and replacement Malik Cunningham hurt his ankle on the final play of the loss to Florida State two weeks ago. Cunningham is reportedly on target to play but the Cardinals will likely rely on freshman tail back Javian Hawkins, who is off to an excellent start to the season. Still, if Cunningham is limited, Louisville could be awfully one-dimensional offensively this afternoon. Boston College struggled to get off the field on third down last week versus Wake Forest and still almost knocked off the underrated Demon Deacons. Meanwhile, thanks to running back AJ Dillon and quarterback Anthony Brown, the Eagles own one of the top rushing offenses in the nation, averaging 252.0 yards per game (13th nationally). In a game I can envision BC winning outright, I love catching four points here.
College Football Week 6 Selection: Boston College Eagles +4
In all my years making college football selections, I don’t know if I’ve ever picked my beloved Chips, but let’s fire them up here. It’s expected to be an extremely windy day in Mt. Pleasant on Saturday, which will impact the Eagles more than the Chips. EMU has had a difficult time running the ball this season (121st nationally in yards per game) but its strength offensively is via the pass (35th nationally in passing YPG). Given the conditions, the Eagles should have a harder time than usual moving the ball through the air. Meanwhile, the Chips don’t do much well statistically but they’ve also already faced Wisconsin, Miami and Western Michigan on the road. Granted, they went 1-2 against the spread in those games but that included a 17-12 loss to the Hurricanes as a whopping 30.5-point underdog. They should have covered last week as a 15-point road dog versus the Broncos, but WMU scored a late touchdown to supply bettors with a front door cover. Bottom line: This is a letdown spot for the Eagles, who are just 2-5 against the spread in their last seven games versus the Chips.
College Football Week 6 Selection: Central Michigan Chippewas +6
I’m ticked I didn’t write this up before the line dropped from Navy +3.5 down to +3, but I like the value nonetheless. Air Force ranks second nationally in rushing at 332.8 yards per game, but Navy is right there at 344.7 yards per contest. Meanwhile, the Midshipmen rank 14th nationally against the rush, limiting opponents to just 84.3 yards per game. The home team has won each of the past six meetings between these two teams and Navy is in a revenge spot after Air Force held Malcolm Perry and Co. to just 178 total yards a year ago. The Falcons are just 2-8 against the spread in their last 10 road games versus the Midshipmen while the underdog is 14-6 against the number in the last 20 meetings between these two teams overall. I think we see Navy’s best effort of the season until the Army game at the end of the year.
College Football Week 6 Selection: Navy Midshipmen +3
Oddsmakers release what are called “lookahead” lines for games and just last week, the Gators were a 3-point favorite. Now they’re a 2.5-point dog? That’s a big swing and for what, because Auburn routed Mississippi State at home? Don’t get it twisted: I like Bo Nix and the Tigers. I took them to beat A&M outright as a 4-point underdog a few weeks ago, but this line makes no sense. Nix has produced some big moments and he’s coming off arguably his best overall performance this season, but he hasn’t always been consistent or efficient as a passer. He’s going to receive a stiff test today, as the Gators rank 29th nationally in passing yards against and are 5th in the country in points allowed, surrendering 8.8 per contest. Florida’s offense scares me but with 69% of the betting public on Auburn, this is a good spot to fade recreational bettors in what looks like a clear “trap game.”
College Football Week 6 Selection: Florida Gators +2.5