Yankees Team Total Over 5.5 -110 = LOSS (-1.10 units)
Mets’ Moneyline +145 = LOSS (-1.0 units)
Mets’ Team Total Over 3.5 -105 = LOSS (-1.05 units)
What we learned on Wednesday…
…that I got my ass handed to me. At least the Blues didn’t lose Game 3 to a Sharks team that benefited from an illegal hand pass to set up the game-winning goal in overtime in Game 3 of the Western Conference Finals.
Let’s just move on.
Thursday’s 5/16/19 Picks:
963 Texas Rangers at 964 Kansas City Royals, 12:15 p.m. CT
Let’s get what I’m concerned about out of the way first. Texas starter Lance Lynn enters play on Thursday with a 5.48 ERA but his BABIP is .338, his LOB% is 68.1% and his xFIP is 4.56. Those last three numbers indicate that his ERA is inflated and he’s due for some “positive regression” at some point. The situation is more extreme for Kansas City starter Homer Bailey, whose ERA is 4.83 but his xFIP is 3.73. Again, Bailey has pitched better than his ERA would indicate.
That said, Lynn has been hit hard by right-handers this season (.296/.355/.520) and is vulnerable to the long ball. Bailey has also struggled against righties, who are slashing .313/.363/.434 against the Royals’ right-hander in 2019. Both Lynn (42.6%) and Bailey (47.6%) currently have high hard-contact rates and both have struggled with walks as well.
These starters are due for some good fortune but there’s enough in their advanced profiles to suggest the blow-up factor is still high. The forecast today at Kauffman Stadium is calling for 82-degree temperature with 15 mph winds blowing out to left-center. Toss in a couple of struggling bullpens and I’ll roll the dice that Lady Luck isn’t coming for Lynn or Bailey this afternoon.
The Pick: Rangers/Royals OVER 10.5 -115 (Risking 1.15 units to win 1.0 units)
965 Baltimore Orioles at 966 Cleveland Indians, 5:10 p.m. CT
Somehow, the Yankees scored five runs off Orioles starter David Hess yesterday but then posted goose eggs in their final four frames to screw us on the over (5.5) for their team total. No matter. What’s better than Hess facing a team that can rake? Dan Straily facing a team that can rake.
Thursday evening offers us another opportunity to target Baltimore’s lousy pitching. With an ERA sitting at 8.23, an xFIP of 6.94, a strikeout rate of 11.4%, a walk rate of 9.1%, a ground ball rate of 32.7%, a hard-hit rate of 38.5% and equally terrible ISO numbers against both left and right-handed batters, Straily is the worst pitcher on Thursday’s slate. If the Indians don’t take this guy’s soul tonight they should be ashamed of themselves.
But wait, there’s more! Not only does this offer include Straily and an Orioles pitching staff that has allowed more home runs than any team in baseball, there’s expected to be 10 mph winds blowing out to right-center tonight at Progressive Field. What a bonus offer.
Not to belabor the point, but if the Indians can’t hang at least six runs on the board then what are we all doing here? What’s the point of it all?
The Pick: Indians Team Total Over 5.5 Runs -105 (Risking 1.05 units to win 1.0 units)
Given how small the slate is today, that’s all I’ve got for now but either check this page later this afternoon or my Twitter feed (@AnthonyStalter) for an update. Perhaps something else will tickle my fancy for the games tonight.
2019 Betting Results:
MLB: 25-19-4 (+5.30 units)