Tigers/Mets Under 7.5 -120 = LOSS (-1.10 units)
Braves/Cardinals Over 10 -110 = LOSS (-1.10 units)
Orioles/Rockies Over 12 -110 = WIN (+1.0 units)
Quick-Hits from Friday:
- Apparently if I give out a pick on-air, it’s destined to become a colossal failure. Yesterday, I gave out the Tigers-Mets under during “The Turn” and then watched as the two teams combined for 17 runs. Over the past three weeks, I’m 0-3 when I mention any FTBW pick on air. Fortunately, we have a three-day weekend at 101 ESPN, so I can’t jinx my own plays.
- Just last week, the Cards scored eight runs against Braves starter Mike Foltynewicz in Atlanta. Naturally, “Folty” picked up his first win of the season after holding the Cards to an unearned run over six innings last night. I would love to say that I’m going to avoid taking the Cards on any play involving the over, but that’s not how this works. If I like the matchup, I like the matchup. That said, here’s hoping I don’t like any Cards-related over for the foreseeable future.
- I nearly crossed off the over in the Orioles-Rockies game yesterday because it felt too chalky. Good thing I didn’t, as that was my only win of the night. Sometimes you just have to eat the chalk.
915 New York Yankees at 916 Kansas City Royals, 1:15 p.m. CT **Game 1***
Jakob Junis will start for the Royals in Game 1 of Saturday’s doubleheader with the Yankees. Junis went seven innings against the Angels in his last start, but he yielded five runs on six hits, including two home runs. He’s already faced the Yankees once this year, allowing five runs (four earned) and six hits over 5 1/3 innings in the Bronx on April 19. While Junis has pitched better at home this year than on the road, he is not set up for success this afternoon. It’s expected to be warm with the wind blowing out today at Kauffman Stadium, which is a bad mixture for Junis. His strikeout rate is low (19.1%), his walk (8.5%) and hard-hit (37.8%) rates are up, and he’s had issues with home runs throughout his career. Gary Sanchez, Gleyber Torres and Luke Voit are just three of the power hitters that are littered throughout the Yankees’ lineup. They should feast on not only Junis, but also a Royals bullpen that is allowing a fair amount of hard contact (39.1%) as well.
The Pick: Yankees Team Total Over 5.5 -115 (Risking 1.15 units to win 1.0 units)
927 Detroit Tigers at 928 New York Mets, 3:10 p.m. CT
In my write-up for the Tigers-Mets under yesterday, I noted that New York’s bats somewhat scared me in a matchup with Gregory Soto. That said, I surmised that the Mets were too depleted to cause much damage, however, so I ran with the under. Apparently they’re not too depleted, as they scored eight runs against bad Detroit pitching. I love their matchup on Saturday afternoon with Ryan Carpenter. The starter was hit hard in his first two outings this season, allowing six runs over five innings against the Angels in his season debut before surrendering eight runs in just four innings on May 14 versus the Astros. Opposing batters are hitting .381 against Carpenter, who has allowed two home runs in each of his first two starts. With the Mets, not only do we get a great matchup with Carpenter, but a horrendous Tigers bullpen as well. (Why I didn’t give that more consideration to yesterday when I took the under, I’m not sure.) As an added bonus, the wind is expected to blow straight out to left at 11 mph today at Citi Field. I’m going to call my shot: Pete Alonso goes deep today as the Mets score 5-plus runs.
The Pick: Mets Team Total Over 4.5 -140 (Risking 1.40 units to win 1.0 units)
929 Baltimore Orioles at 930 Colorado Rockies, 8:10 p.m. CT
We might as well take advantage of the Orioles’ horrendous staff pitching at Coors this weekend. On Friday night, the Rockies had just three runs through the first six innings of play. Then they tallied five runs in their final three innings, which included Trevor Story’s two-run walkoff shot (his second of the game) in the bottom of the ninth. If you want to roll with the over again tonight, I won’t talk you out of it. That said, I’m going to isolate the Rockies’ bats. Andrew Cashner will have starts in which he generates a bunch of ground balls and limits damage. That said, he owns an xFIP of 4.70, his strikeout (17.5%) and walk (8.7%) rates are both below league average and tonight he’ll face the Rockies at Coors Field. We’ll need similar production out of the Rockies’ bats tonight as they had last night, but I don’t think that will be a problem. Even if Cashner somehow keeps Colorado in check, the Rox still get to face a bad Baltimore pen in the back half of the game.
The Pick: Rockies Team Total Over 6.5 -105 (Risking 1.05 units to win 1.0 units)
2019 Betting Results:
MLB: 35-28-4 (+5.4 units)
NHL: 1-0 (+1.0 units)