Pirates/Reds over 10.5 -110 = LOSS (-1.10 units)
Diamondbacks Team Total Over 5.5 -125 = LOSS (-1.25 units)
Quick Fits of Rage…
…losing streak is up to five in a row. At this point, I may never win again.
…thank you for scoring just enough runs in the final four innings to get my hopes up, Pirates and Reds. I was perfectly fine chalking up that over as a loss when the game was scoreless after five. Combining for nine runs from the sixth inning on, only to fall two runs short of the 10.5-run total, was a nice touch. Like taking a screwdriver to my kidney for no reason.
…you’re dead to me, Diamondbacks.
Fade Material Picks:
965 Kansas City Royals at 966 Texas Rangers, 7:05 p.m. CT
This game features two of my favorite things to target: Bad pitching and a pure hitter’s environment. Granted, that hasn’t worked well for me this week (thanks Diamondbacks, you scum bags), but tonight, TONIGHT IS DIFFERENT!
Prior to his last start, Jakob Junis was 0-3 with a 7.02 ERA in his previous three outings. He did show some improvement in his last start, but he still allowed three runs in the Royals’ 7-3 loss to the Yankees. Junis also surrendered three runs on five hits with four walks in six innings of a 3-2 loss to the Rangers last June.
Junis has a solid ground ball rate (46.1%) over the past two seasons, but that’s where the positives end. His strikeout (19.9%), walk (8.5%) and hard-hit (42.2%) rates are all below league average. He’s a good bet to allow at least three runs tonight and then the Rangers can go to work on a Kansas City bullpen that ranks third-to-last in xFIP (4.45) entering Thursday’s action.
The Pick: Rangers Team Total Over 5.5 -105 (Risking 1.05 units to win 1.0 units)
967 Cleveland Indians at 968 Chicago White Sox, 7:10 p.m. CT
Through the first two months of the season, the Indians have been largely a disappointment. That said, they are showing signs of life recently, especially offensively. In their last three games, they scored no fewer than five runs and in their last two games, they scored a combined 21 runs.
Tonight, Cleveland’s hitters will face Manny Banuelos, who has struggled over his last four starts. He’s allowed 24 runs on 27 hits over 15 innings while also surrendering eight home runs over that span. Walks have been an issue for Banuelos as well, as he’s issued 22 free passes this season.
While the White Sox’ pen isn’t as bad as the aforementioned Royals, Chicago’s relievers own a collective 4.26 xFIP entering play tonight. With the Indians playing on the road, we’re guaranteed ninth inning at bats so they’ll take plenty of hacks against the White Sox’ bullpen. Hopefully they didn’t leave their offense in Boston.
The Pick: Indians Team Total Over 5.5 +115 (Risking 1.0 units to win 1.15 units)
959 New York Mets at 960 Los Angeles Dodgers, 9:10 p.m. CT
Jason Vargas is due for a blow up. He held the Tigers to one run on five hits over five innings in his last start, which came after a stint on the IL. He also allowed three runs on three hits at Milwaukee on May 5 and only allowed one run, respectively, in consecutive starts versus the Cardinals, Phillies and Reds.
Vargas isn’t that good. He owns a 5.22 ERA, a 17% strikeout rate and has walked batters at an 11-percent clip. While the Dodgers don’t have great numbers versus left-handers this season, this is still an offense that put up nine runs on 15 hits against Noah Syndergaard on Wednesday night.
There is some risk here, however. The Mets currently have a top-10 bullpen and Vargas will likely have a quick hook. With the Dodgers huge favorites, they’re likely to have a lead and thus, we’ll only have eight innings of at bats to get our six runs. That said, they could also eclipse their team total by the third inning tonight, so I’m willing to assume those risks.
The Pick: Dodgers Team Total Over 5.5 +110 (Risking 1.0 units to win 1.10 units)
2019 Betting Results:
MLB: 43-35-4 (+4.60 units)
NHL: 1-0 (+1.0 units)