From The Betting Window

From the Betting Window, 5/6/19: Targeting Edwin Jackson & Finding Value in Nats

From the Betting Window

Monday’s FTBW Picks & Results:

Blues -115 = WIN (+1.0 units)

Phillies/Padres UNDER 7.5 -110 = LOSS (-1.10 units)

Astros -135 = WIN (+1.0 units)

Tuesday’s FTBW Picks:
917 Houston Astros at 918 Seattle Mariners, 2:40 p.m. CT

You already know how good Justin Verlander is, so let’s talk about Tommy Milone. The 32-year-old southpaw has been a pleasant surprise for the Mariners this season but he has yet to make it through six innings in any of his three starts. He’s a fly-ball pitcher that gives up a lot of hard contact and while Houston is still missing Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa and George Springer, the Astros continue to rake. Alex Bregman, Yulieski Gurriel and Robinson Chirinos all hit left-handed pitching well and once the ‘Stros chase Milone, they’ll take their hacks against a Seattle bullpen that owns a 4.76 xFIP heading into play today.

The Pick: Astros Runline -1.5 (-120) = Risking 1.20 units to win 1.0 units

919 New York Yankees at 920 Toronto Blue Jays, 6:07 p.m. CT

The Yankees lost the first two games of this series but I don’t see them being swept tonight in Toronto. Edwin Jackson owns a 13.22 ERA on the season and has struck out just 17.6% of lefties and 16.7% of the righties that he has faced. Gary Sanchez should have a big night, as Jackson is also allowing 52% hard hits and a .413 ISO to right-handers. He’s a mess and so is this Toronto bullpen. Even if J.A. Happ doesn’t fare well against his former team, it’s highly unlikely that he’s out-dueled by Jackson. I’m also willing to bet the Yankees’ bullpen doesn’t suffer a meltdown two nights in a row.

The Pick: Yankees Runline -1.5 (-125) = Risking 1.25 units to win 1.0 units

911 Washington Nationals at 912 San Diego Padres, 9:10 p.m. CT

In terms of value, the Nationals might be the best bet on the board. Washington is averaging 6.7 runs per game over its last 11 and Patrick Corbin draws the start for the Nats tonight in San Diego. Granted, Corbin is coming off the shortest outing of the season after allowing eight runs (six earned) over 2 2/3 innings in a 9-3 loss to the Reds last Friday. Still, Corbin was outstanding in his previous start, tossing a complete game shutout with five strikeouts against the Marlins. Joey Lucchesi will start tonight for the Padres and while he has good numbers, he’s been league-average against right-handed batters. As previously noted, the Nats are hot offensively and will throw six right-handers at Lucchesi tonight. The Nationals have won four straight overall 10 of 14 in San Diego.

The Pick: Nationals Moneyline +100 = Risking 1.0 units to win 1.0 units

2019 Betting Results:

MLB: 44-40-4 (+0.2 units)

NHL: 2-0 (+2.0 units)