Reds Moneyline -125 = LOSS (-1.25 Units)
Quick Fits of Rage…
…thank the betting gods that last week is over. Not that that means my losing skid is over, but there’s just something about wiping the slate clean with a new week. I entered last week up over 10 units and now I’m sitting at +0.3 units for the MLB season. Unbelievably bad week for FTBW. But we start anew tonight…
007 Boston Bruins at 008 St. Louis Blues, 7:00 p.m. CT
Jordan Binnington is 12-2 this year when coming off a loss. The Blues are 22-10 after allowing four goals or more in their previous game. They’ve 7-3 in their last 10 games following a loss of more than three goals. They also fired their head coach in November, had the worst record in the NHL after games were completed on January 2 and lost a Western Conference Finals game to the Sharks because of an illegal hand pass.
You think this team is going to be rattled because it lost 7-2 to the Bruins on Saturday night at Enterprise Center?
The Blues need to be more disciplined tonight than they were in the previous three games of this series. They’ve been outscored by a 13-7 margin in this Cup Final, but they lead the Bruins 6-5 in 5-on-5 goals. This is an overly simplistic way to look at the situation, but if the Blues cut down on penalties they’ve been just as good, if not better than the Bruins when it’s 5-on-5.
If the Blues did what they did in Game 2 – get the puck behind Boston’s defenders, use their unrelenting forecheck to keep possession and create high-danger scoring chances – then they will even this series. I fully expect Binnington to rebound and for the Blues to play with a measure of calm that they usually exhibit, but didn’t have on Saturday night. I trust the Blues to do what they’ve done since the start of these playoffs: Play Gloria the game after a loss.
The Pick: Blues Money Line -115 (Risking 1.15 units to win 1.0)
953 Philadelphia Phillies at 954 San Diego Padres, 9:10 p.m. CT
Aaron Nola goes tonight for the Phillies and following a slow start to the season, he has recently resembled the top-flight starter that he was a year ago. In fact, his strikeout rate was 29.6% in the month of May and his velocity looks as stable as ever. He also owns a 52% ground ball rate when facing right-handers this season, which benefits him tonight against a Padres’ lineup that is mostly right-handed.
On the other side, Eric Lauer has not been great for the Padres but the Phillies see a ballpark downgrade tonight in San Diego and their offense is slumping. They were shut out yesterday in L.A. and have been held to three runs or fewer in four straight contests. The under is 4-0 in Lauer’s last four home starts and is 6-2 in the Phillies’ last eight road games versus a left-handed starter.
The Pick: Phillies/Padres under 7.5 -110 (Risking 1.10 units to win 1.0 units)
955 Houston Astros at 956 Seattle Mariners, 9:10 p.m. CT
The Astros are starting to look like the Yankees in that they could field an All-Star lineup based on their injured list. Jose Altuve (hamstring), George Springer (hamstring), Carlos Correa (ribs), Aledmys Diaz (hamstring) and Max Stassi (knee) are all out, yet the wins continue to pile up for Houston. In fact, the Astros are 16-5 without Altuve and 4-1 without Correa.
Understandably, the Astros’ run production has taken a hit without Altuve and Correa. That said, their pitching continues to be fantastic. They’ve held opponents to four or fewer runs in four straight games and tonight top prospect Corbin Martin will face a struggling Seattle team.
Martin hasn’t had a ton of success in his first four major league starts but the Mariners have been dreadful since their hot start in April. They’ve dropped five of their last six games at home, are 16-35 in their last 51 games overall and are 2-11 in their last 13 divisional games. They’re also 0-4 in Wade LeBlanc’s last four starts overall and 2-7 in his last nine outings at home.
Speaking of LeBlanc, he’s a low-strikeout pitcher (17.0%) and owns a 2.95 HR/9 to right-handed batters. I don’t expect this watered-down Houston lineup to mash LeBlanc but the Astros’ price is too cheap on the money line to pass up, especially given the current state of the Mariners.
The Pick: Astros Money Line -135 (Risking 1.35 units to win 1.0 units)
2019 Betting Results:
MLB: 43-39-4 (+0.3 units)
NHL: 1-0 (+1.0 units)