From The Betting Window

From the Betting Window, 6/7/19: Will Brewers feast on Pirates’ Pitching?

From the Betting Window

Thursday’s 6/6/19 Picks & Results:

Astros Runline -1.5 (-120) = LOSS (-1.20 units)

Yankees Runline -1.5 (-125) = WIN (+1.0 units)

Nationals Moneyline +100 = LOSS (-1.0 units)

What Went Right…

…the Yankees tuned up Edwin Jackson for six runs (although only two were earned) and despite their best efforts in the ninth, the Bombers’ bullpen didn’t blow a sizable lead two nights in a row.

What Went Wrong…

…the ‘Stros blew leads of 3-0, 5-1 and 6-4 in Seattle before beating the M’s 8-7 in extras. Houston’s bullpen is usually a Boa constrictor, but wasn’t yesterday so we took the “L” on the Astros’ runline.

…speaking of blowing leads, the Nationals jumped out to a 4-0 lead in the first inning last night in San Diego but failed to score in their final eight frames. Patrick Corbin allowed two runs in the bottom of the second and three runs in the fifth before asleep-at-the-wheel Dave Martinez finally pulled him.

Friday 6/7/19 Pick:

959 Pittsburgh Pirates at 960 Milwaukee Brewers, 7:10 p.m. CT

Rookie Davis starts tonight for the Pirates and I’m expecting the Brewers to eat. Davis hasn’t made a start since September 2017 and has only made four appearances out of the bullpen this year. He’s already allowed five runs and eight hits in 7 2/3 innings as a reliever. Along with a 16.5% strikeout rate (which is low), Davis has trouble inducing ground balls (which is a problem pitching at hitter-friendly Miller Park) and he’s had issues with walks as well (9.1% BB rate over the last two years). Again, Milwaukee should rake.

Chances are that Davis faces the Brewers twice through their lineup before Clint Hurdle goes to his bullpen. Pittsburgh’s pen isn’t horrible, sporting a 4.26 xFIP heading into action on Friday. That said, the Pirates only have one lefty in their pen and that’s Francisco Liriano, who pitched yesterday. Thus, even though the Pirates’ pen isn’t a dumpster fire, Christian Yelich, Mike Moustakas, Eric Thames and Travis Shaw will have the platoon advantage against Pittsburgh’s relievers.

The Brewers’ team total tonight is 5.5 and the juice is -120. That’s not terribly expensive given the matchup with Davis, the ballpark and the way this Brewers’ offense can mash.

The Pick: Brewers Team Total Over 5.5 Runs (-120) = Risking 1.20 units to win 1.0 units

2019 Betting Results:

MLB: 45-42-4 (-1.0 units)

NHL: 2-0 (+2.0 units)