Yankees Over 6.5 Runs (-135) = LOSS (-1.35 units)
Reds/Rockies over 14 Runs (-110) = WIN (1.0 units)
Monday 7/15/19 Picks:
963 Toronto Blue Jays at 964 Boston Red Sox, 6:10 p.m. CT
Rookie Trent Thornton has been solid for the Blue Jays this season. He’s coming off one of his best starts of the year on July 7, holding the Orioles to three hits over six scoreless innings. Thornton also surrendered just two runs over 6 1/3 innings on June 21 at Fenway Park against this very Red Sox club.
That said, trouble awaits. Thornton owns a 23.2% strikeout rate in 2019, but over his last 14 starts that number is down to 16.7%. He has also struggled with walks and gives up plenty of hard contact. Mookie Betts, Rafael Devers, Xander Bogaerts, J.D. Martinez and Andrew Benintendi all mash right-handed pitching and after Thornton exits, a Toronto bullpen with a 4.39 xFIP will enter. The Red Sox should be good for six-plus runs tonight.
The Pick: Red Sox Over 5.5 Runs (-135) = Risking 1.35 units to win 1.0 units
951 Los Angeles Dodgers at 952 Philadelphia Phillies, 6:05 p.m. CT
While the Phillies’ hitters have to deal with Clayton Kershaw tonight, the Dodgers’ offense gets a plus matchup with Zach Eflin. The Philadelphia starter has struggled of late, including a rough start against the Braves in which he surrendered seven runs (six earned) on seven hits over just three innings. The 25-year-old posted a 2.83 ERA over his first 14 outings of the season but that number has spiked to 9.64 over his last three outings.
Eflin is also the proud owner of a 9.18 ERA in four career starts versus the Dodgers, who see a ballpark boost tonight playing at Citizens Bank Park. He’s struggled with lefties and the Dodgers have no shortage of left-handed power, including Cody Bellinger, Max Muncy, Corey Seager and Joc Pederson. In fact, Muncy is 3-for-5 with two solo home runs versus Eflin in his career. Much like the Red Sox, I like the Dodgers to score six-plus tonight.
The Pick: Dodgers Team Total over 5.5 Runs (-105) = Risking 1.05 units to win 1.0 units
2019 Betting Results:
MLB First Half: 59-50-4 (+2.55 units)
MLB Second Half: 1-2 (-1.60 units)
NHL Playoffs: 2-0 (+2.0 units)