Dodgers Over 5.5 Runs (-130) = WIN (+1.0 units)
Indians Over 6.5 Runs (+110) = WIN (+1.10 units)
Twins Over 5.5 Runs (-120) = LOSS (-1.20 units)
Giants/Rockies OVER 14.5 Runs (-110) = LOSS (-1.10 units)
Wednesday 7/17/19 Picks:
959 Los Angeles Dodgers at 960 Philadelphia Phillies, 6:05 p.m. CT
We needed a pinch-hit three-run home run from Matt Beaty off Phillies closer Hector Neris in the top of the ninth to cash the Dodgers again last night, but they cashed nonetheless. Who’s up for some boys in blue again tonight?
Nick Pivetta owns a 6.99 ERA in his last five starts and has struggled to keep the ball in the yard this season. He currently owns a 1.90 HR/9 mark against both left and right-handed hitters this season and the Dodgers have already hit nine home runs in the first two games of this series. Because of this, oddsmakers have inflated the Dodgers’ team total tonight but were gracious enough to give us even odds.
The Pick: Dodgers Over 6.5 Runs (+100) = Risking 1.0 units to win 1.0 units
977 Washington Nationals at 978 Baltimore Orioles, 6:05 p.m. CT
The Orioles didn’t pull their weight last night as the Nationals’ 8-1 win fell under the 11.5-run total. That said, I like both of these offenes tonight. Erick Fedde allowed a total of 14 runs and 19 hits in 10 innings over his last two starts in Double-A. He’s a low-strikeout pitcher that draws a start in a hitter’s park tonight and while the Orioles aren’t typically an offense that tears the cover off the ball, they will surprise at times. On the other side, the Nationals should feast off Baltimore starter Aaron Brooks. The right-hander was claimed off waivers from Oakland earlier this month and while he pitched well against the Rays last Saturday, he was 2-3 with a 5.74 ERA in six starts with the A’s earlier this season. Once Brooks exits, the Nationals can tee off on an Orioles bullpen that owns a 5.17 FIP this season, which is the worst in baseball. The over is 6-2-1 in Fedde’s last nine starts and is 12-5-3 in the Orioles’ last 20 games following a loss.
The Pick: Nationals/Orioles OVER 11.5 (-105) = Risking 1.05 units to win 1.0 units
967 Toronto Blue Jays at 968 Boston Red Sox, 6:10 p.m. CT
If I’m only playing one tonight, it’s Boston’s team total of over 6.5 runs. Aaron Sanchez has been one of the more hittable pitchers in baseball this season and owns a strikeout rate of just 17%. Coupled with a walk rate of 13%, the Red Sox should have men on base all night. What they do with those runners is another story, but at least they’re facing a pitcher in Sanchez that owns a .150 ISO to both left and right-handed batters. Mookie Betts, Rafael Devers, Xander Bogaerts and J.D. Martinez should feast tonight at Fenway.
The Pick: Red Sox Over 6.5 Runs (-115) = Risking 1.15 units to win 1.0 units
2019 Betting Results:
MLB First Half: 59-50-4 (+2.55 units)
MLB Second Half: 5-4 (+0.20 units)
NHL Playoffs: 2-0 (+2.0 units)