Braves Over 5.5 Runs (+105) = WIN (+1.05 units)
Mariners Over 5.5 Runs (+100) = WIN (+1.0 units)
Wednesday 7/31/19 Picks:
967 Houston Astros at 968 Cleveland Indians, 6:10 p.m. CT
Zach Plesac goes tonight for Cleveland and he’s been fantastic in his last three outings, surrendering a total of three runs (two earned) on 10 hits with 11 strikeouts and five walks over his last 16 innings. That said, two of those three starts came against the Royals and the other matchup was versus the Tigers. Needless to say, he’ll face a bigger challenge tonight when the Indians host the Astros.
When you take a deeper look under the hood, you’ll also see that Plesac owns a strikeout rate of 18% and a walk rate of 9%. Thus, he’s a low-strikeout, high-walk pitcher facing an Astros lineup that is patient and mashes right-handed pitching (and is guaranteed ninth inning at bats tonight). Sign me up.
The Pick: Astros Over 5.5 Runs (+105) = Risking 1.0 units to win 1.05 units
977 Milwaukee Brewers at 978 Oakland A’s, 9:07 p.m. CT
I feel like the Brewers’ offense is flying under the radar tonight. Brett Anderson is 9-6 on the year with a 4.05 ERA. He was unbeaten over four starts until the Rangers touched him up for five runs and seven hits over 4 2/3 innings in his last trip to the mound. He has excellent control and generates a lot of ground balls, but he doesn’t miss many bats. The Brewers strike out at a high rate against left-handers, but that problem is negated tonight by Anderson’s low strikeout rate.
The Brewers aren’t playing in the best hitter’s park tonight but they will get to use the DH and we’re guaranteed ninth inning at bats with Milwaukee. Lorenzo Cain, Ryan Braun, Keston Hiura and Yasmani Grandal all have a splits advantage against Anderson and while he bats from the left side, Christian Yelich rakes against everyone.
Unlike most of the teams I highlight, we only need five runs out of the Brewers tonight. I think that’s more than attainable.
The Pick: Brewers Over 4.5 Runs (-105) = Risking 1.05 units to win 1.0 units
2019 Betting Results:
MLB First Half: 59-50-4 (+2.55 units)
MLB Second Half: 11-11-1 (-1.75 units)
NHL Playoffs: 2-0 (+2.0 units)