Cards/Reds OVER 9.5 = LOSS (-1.10 units)
Mets/Braves OVER 10.5 = WIN (+1.0 units)
973 Minnesota Twins at 974 Texas Rangers, 7:05 p.m. CT
These two teams combined for 19 runs on Thursday night, including 13 by the Twins. That said, tonight’s pitching matchup is significantly better, as local product Jake Odorrizi opposes Mike Minor.
Since being slapped for nine runs over four innings in a loss to the Yankees on July 24, Odorizzi has been stellar. He’s allowed a total of two runs over his last 17 1/3 innings and while he struggled with walks in his last start (he allowed a season-high four), Odorizzi held the Indians scoreless over 5 2/3 innings.
Minor, meanwhile, has scattered 11 hits while handing out only two free passes while also racking up 18 strikeouts over 15 scoreless innings (two starts). Tonight’s matchup with the Twins is a doozy, as Minnesota has loads of power and doesn’t strikeout much as a team. That said, Minor is in excellent form and with the wind expected to blow in at over 11 mph tonight, the conditions benefit the pitchers.
The Pick: Twins/Rangers UNDER 10 (-115) = Risking 1.15 units to win 1.0 units
975 Houston Astros at 976 Oakland A’s, 9:07 p.m. CT
There’s risk in taking the over in a game that Justin Verlander starts, but there are a few reasons why this matchup should surprise and produce plenty of offense.
Verlander has racked up 10 or more strikeouts in five consecutive starts but he also allowed four runs on nine hits in a no-decision versus Baltimore in his last outing. He’s prone to surrendering home runs and while this A’s team didn’t do much in Houston when they faced Verlander on July 24 (two hits, one run), Oakland’s lineup also has a ton of pop.
Houston should be able to knock around Tanner Roark, too. Since the A’s acquired him from the Reds at the deadline, Roark pitched in and out of trouble versus the Cardinals but took the loss against the White Sox when he allowed three runs (two earned) on six hits over 6 2/3 innings. The Astros have one of the best, most balanced offenses in baseball and both pitchers could suffer with Tripp Gibson behind home plate tonight. The umpire has a small zone, with the over cashing in 14 of his 21 games behind the dish this season.
The Pick: Astros/A’s OVER 9 (-105) = Risking 1.05 units to win 1.0 units
2019 Betting Results:
MLB First Half: 59-50-4 (+2.55 units)
MLB Second Half: 13-17-1 (-6.15 units)
NHL Playoffs: 2-0 (+2.0 units)