Thursday’s 5/9/19 Picks & Results:
Indians Team Total Over 5.5 Runs +110 = PUSH (+0.0 units)
Angels Moneyline -135 = WIN (+1.00 units)
Marlins/Cubs Over 10 -110 = LOSS (-1.10 units)
What we learned on Thursday…
…that even if there are 13 mph winds blowing out to dead center at Wrigley, the Marlins still can’t hit their way out of a wet paper bag. Not that the Cubs helped us out much either, as their big, bad bats were also held in check despite favorable weather conditions.
…that the rain gods had it in for us in Cleveland. After five innings of play, a baseball game is official but when it comes to wagers on team totals, the game has to go nine. So in the case of yesterday’s White Sox-Indians matchup, because the game only went five innings instead of nine (rain cancelled the remaining four innings), then all team totals result in a push. It was a tough break considering the Indians were well on their way of covering the 5.5-run total. That final cost us a profitable day.
While still up +1.15 units on the season, it’s been a slow start to 2019. Here’s hoping a big streak is right around the corner.
Friday 5/10/19 Picks:
965 Los Angeles Angels at 966 Baltimore Orioles, 6:05 p.m. CT
Dan Straily will start for the Orioles tonight and in five starts this season, he has a strikeout rate of 10-percent and a ground ball rate of 5-percent. Yikes. He’s also allowed a 2.50-plus HR/9 to batters from both sides of the plate, which is incredibly high. The Halos scored 13 runs in Detroit yesterday and have one of the lowest strikeout rates in baseball. When the Angels are up, they will put the ball in play and if Straily’s numbers hold true, runs won’t be at a premium for L.A. Where the risk comes here, is with Baltimore’s offense. The Orioles have scored only 37 runs this season, which ranks 23rd in MLB. That said, Trevor Cahill has been effective last few seasons because he’s posted decent strikeout and ground ball rates. That hasn’t been the case this season, as his strikeout rate is down to 17.9-percent and his ground ball rate is hovering around 40-percent. With a hard-hit rate of 43.2-percent, Cahill could be in trouble himself, even when facing the Orioles. In fact, the over is 4-0 in Cahill’s last four starts.
The Pick: Angels/Orioles Over 11 -110 (1.10 units to win 1.00 units)
971 New York Yankees at 972 Tampa Bay Rays, 6:10 p.m. CT
This is the most underrated pitching matchup on Friday night’s MLB slate. Domingo German limited the Twins to one run on four hits and three walks over 6 2/3 innings in his last start and currently owns a 26-percent strikeout rate over his six starts this season. The Rays have hit right-handed pitching well this season and have been tough at home, but I have total confidence in German to keep the Rays in check at pitcher-friendly Tropicana Field. On the other side, Tyler Glasnow won American League Pitcher of the Month for March and April and is coming off a start against the previously-mentioned Orioles in which he limited Baltimore to three hits over seven scoreless innings (striking out eight in the process). Glasnow has yet to give up more than two runs in his seven starts this season and while the Yankees’ offense has been just fine without Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge, they also see a park downgrade moving from Yankee Stadium to Tropicana. The under is 12-5 in the last 17 meetings between these two teams.
The Pick: Yankees/Rays Under 7 -110 (1.10 units to win 1.0 units)
973 Detroit Tigers at 974 Minnesota Twins, 7:10 p.m. CT
Tigers starter Tyson Ross had his regularly scheduled start pushed back from Thursday due to a sore back. He’s also coming off back-to-back ugly outings in which he allowed a total of nine runs on 14 hits with five walks over just 6 1/3 innings of work. Ross is a pitcher that survives on a high ground ball rate, but the Twins’ lineup is loaded with fly-ball hitters. Meanwhile, local product Jake Odorizzi has seemingly come into his own this season. He owns a 3.08 FIP, which would be the best mark of his career if the season ended today. Granted, his 4.9 percent HR/FB rate is unsustainable and eventually, some of those fly balls that he’s allowing will go out of the yard. Fortunately, he’ll face a Tigers lineup that enters Friday with the second-fewest home runs in baseball (25). When you factor in how bad Ross and the Tigers’ bullpen has been this season, I like the Twins in a blowout, although I’m going to lay the 1.5 runs because their moneyline odds are too expensive.
The Pick: Twins Runline -1.5 -115 (1.15 units to win 1.0 units)
2019 Betting Results
MLB: 16-14-1 (+1.15 units)