Saturday 5/4/19 Picks Results:
Royals/Tigers Over 9 = WIN (+1.0 units)
Indians -1.5 (+105) = LOSS (-1.0 units)
Giants/Reds Over 8.5 = WIN (+1.0 units)
+ Had I taken the Indians on the moneyline instead of the runline, then I would have had a perfect day. That said, had Carlos Santana not hit a 2-run home run in the bottom of the eighth inning when the Indians were trailing 4-3, then the Tribe may have lost as a -200 moneyline favorite. Let’s say I laid the -200 and the Indians lost, 4-3. Then that one loss would have cancelled my over wins in the other two games. Thus, while not paying a premium with the Indians cost me yesterday, in the long run it’s still wise to avoid big moneyline favorites.
Sunday’s 5/5/19 Picks:
923 Boston Red Sox at 924 Chicago White Sox, 1:10 p.m. CT
The White Sox will send Dylan Covey to the mound today, which is not only great for Red Sox hitters, but bettors as well. Covey’s career ERA sits at 6.11. His career WHIP is 1.56. He’s a low strikeout pitcher that allows 45-percent hard contact to right-handed hitters. The only reason he’s in Chicago’s starting rotation is because Carlos Rodon has been shelved due to elbow inflammation.
Boston racked up 15 runs yesterday and there’s no reason to believe J.D. Martinez, Mookie Betts and the rest of the Red Sox’ lineup can’t feast again today. The only drawback is that Boston’s team total is sitting at 5.5 runs. That means in order to cash the over, the Red Sox will need to score six runs today at Guaranteed Rate Field. While that doesn’t seem like a lot of runs (especially for a team that just scored 15 runs on Saturday in the same ballpark), you’d be surprised how often teams are limited to four runs or fewer.
That said, on top of Covey being terrible, the White Sox also employ one of the worst bullpens in baseball. Plus, with the Red Sox playing on the road, we’re guaranteed ninth inning at bats. Swing away, Boston.
The Pick: Red Sox Team Total Over 5.5 Runs -110 (1.10 units to win 1.0 units)
905 New York Mets at 906 Milwaukee Brewers, 1:10 p.m. CT
Somehow, Jason Vargas has only allowed three runs (one earned) combined in his last three starts, which included games against the Cardinals, Phillies and Reds. In my mind, that just means he’s due for a blowup. Vargas benefited from pitching at spacious Citi Field, but the ball should be jumping today at Miller Park. His 15.5-percent strikeout and 12.4-percent walk rate are ugly, as is his 53.6-percent hard-hit rate. Those three numbers mean he’s not missing bats, he’s handing out too many free passes and when the ball is put in play, it’s coming off the bat hard. I don’t need to sell anyone on the Brewers’ bats, do I?
On the other side of the pitching matchup is Zach Davies, who isn’t a high-strikeout guy himself, but he does an excellent job of inducing groundballs (48.0-percent groundball rate). That said, the Mets have an underrated offense and Davies is walking batters at a 15.4-percent clip this year (that’s high). If he gets into trouble, one big fly could help get us over the total today at Miller Park.
One drawback to taking the over with these two teams is that the Brewers rank 8th and the Mets are 2nd in terms of bullpen xFIP. However, these two teams played 18 innings last night and thus, I’m anticipating both managers giving their starters a long leash today, not by choice, but by necessity due to having taxed bullpens.
Finally, the over is 4-1-1 in Davies’ last six starts against the Mets and is 7-1-3 in Vargas’ last 11 road outings. While these two teams combined for only 11 runs in the first two games of this series, Sunday’s matchup has shootout potential.
The Pick: Mets/Brewers Over 9.5 -110 (1.10 units to win 1.0 units)
927 Houston Astros at 928 Los Angeles Angels, 3:10 p.m. CT
One more team total for today and I’ll keep this writeup short and sweet. The Astros scored 14 runs against the Angels on Saturday and Trevor Cahill was a better matchup for Houston than Matt Harvey, who will toe the rubber on Sunday in Monterrey. Estadio de Beisbol Monterrey plays like Coors Field because of the high altitude and short fences. Thus, if the Astros scored 14 runs off Cahill and the Angels’ pen yesterday, I shudder to think what they’ll to do to the “Dark Knight” today.
In fairness to Harvey, he held the Yankees to two runs over six innings in a no-decision before holding the Royals to one run over seven innings. Thus, he has been good his last two starts. Still, he allowed 21 runs over just 18 2/3 innings in his first four outings and was pounded for seven runs across two innings in his lone career start versus Houston. This Astros lineup can be ruthless to opposing pitchers when its firing on all cylinders. Given how well Houston hit yesterday, it’s fair to say the Astros are in good form.
The Pick: Astros Team Total Over 5.5 Runs -140 (1.40 units to win 1.0 units)
2019 Betting Results
MLB: 13-9 (+2.50)