Major League Baseball

From the Betting Window, 5/6/19: Rolling the Dice on the Under at Miller Park

Sunday 5/5/19 Pick Results:

Red Sox Team Total Over 5.5 -110 = WIN (+1.0 units)

Mets/Brewers Over 9.5 -110 = LOSS (-1.10 units)

Astros Team Total Over 5.5 Runs -140 = WIN (+1.0 units)


+ The Red Sox showed Sunday why it’s important to consider how well a team’s bullpen is performing. Boston scored only two runs in the first seven innings, both of which were off Chicago starter Dylan Covey. While I believed the Red Sox would score more runs off Covey, I also wrote about how bad the White Sox bullpen has been this season. Held in check for most of the game, Boston lit Chicago’s pen on fire for seven runs in the top of the eighth, punctuated by a Xander Bogaerts grand slam of Juan Minaya. In the blink of an eye, the Red Sox went from a sure loss to an easy win, as they scored nine runs in a 9-2 victory.

Monday’s 5/6/19 Picks:

967 Boston Red Sox at 968 Baltimore Orioles, 6:05 p.m. CT

I’m tempted to go back to the well with the Red Sox’s team total but believe it or not, I want exposure to the Orioles in this game, too. That’s because 31-year-old minor league journeyman Josh Smith wills tart for Boston. He has pitched well in the minors, but he only has nine career major league starts. We’re not talking about a top prospect with an incredible skill set that is getting his shot to prove himself at the big-league level. Manager Alex Cora is simply hoping to get 4-5 innings out of Smith before turning things over to his bullpen. While the Orioles don’t have a potent offense, they do play in a hitter’s park and tonight the wind is blowing out to left-center. I’m take a leap of faith that we’ll get four runs out of the Orioles while the Red Sox do most of the heavy lifting.

On the other side of the pitching equation is John Means, who actually has been the lone bright spot in Baltimore’s rotation. In 25 innings of work, Means has a 2.81 ERA and owns a 20-percent hard-hit rate. That said, he’s also a fly-ball pitcher that will start in a ballpark tonight that favors right-handed power. From Bogaerts to J.D. Martinez to Mookie Betts, the Red Sox have no shortage of right-handed power.

The Pick: Red Sox/Orioles Over 9.5 -110 (1.10 units to win 1.0 units)

953 Washington Nationals at 954 Milwaukee Brewers, 6:40 p.m. CT

The best way to attack Milwaukee starter Jhoulys Chacin is to throw a bunch of lefties at him. The problem for Washington is that with Juan Soto and Matt Adams on the IL, the Nationals are currently a right handed-heavy lineup. Adam Eaton is the only lefty in Washington’s lineup tonight, which bodes well for Chacin pitching deep into the game.

Meanwhile, Max Scherzer will toe the rubber against a Brewers offense that has cooled off significantly over the past two weeks. They didn’t create much damage against the Mets over the weekend and eight of their nine batters tonight have strikeout rates above 20-percent against right-handed pitching. While he has had his struggles this season, Scherzer should mow down Milwaukee’s lineup.

The Pick: Nationals/Brewers Under 7.5 -105 (1.05 units to win 1.0 units)

2019 Betting Results

MLB: 15-10 (+3.40 units)