After not seeing anything I loved on Monday, I like four plays on Tuesday night:
961 Chicago White Sox at 962 New York Yankees, 6:05 p.m. CT
James Shields starts against a depleted but still-powerful Yankee lineup in a home run-friendly park. Shields is a fly-ball pitcher that has struggled against right and left-handers equally. On the other side is old friend Lance Lynn, who has struggled against left-handed hitters to the tune of a 39-percent hard contact rate. Thanks to that jet stream out to right, Daniel Palka, Yoan Moncada and Omar Narvaez could all potentially do damage versus Lynn. As of this writing, a whopping 87% of the money wagered on the total is with the over, which has jumped from 9 to 10 at most sportsbooks.
Prediction: Over 10
971 Miami Marlins at 972 Boston Red Sox, 6:10 p.m. CT
The Red Sox could score 10 runs on their own tonight. Jose Urena draws the start for the Marlins and he’s in trouble. The Red Sox mash right-handed pitching, he’ll face the DH pitching in an American League park, and he sees a negative ballpark shift going from Marlins Park to Fenway. The Marlins also get a ballpark boost offensively and will face a starter in Brian Johnson who has struggled against right-handers this season (33% hard contact rate). J.T. Realmuto, Brian Anderson, Starlin Castro and Austin Dean all swing from the right side and could surprisingly cause some damage for a Miami offense that often struggles.
Prediction: Over 10.5
975 Los Angeles Dodgers at 976 Texas Rangers, 7:05 p.m. CT
In case you haven’t noticed, I envision a high-scoring night in baseball. Walker Buehler has been fantastic for the Dodgers but it’s supposed to be humid tonight at Globe Life Park, which is a bandbox when the weather is hot. Most of the damage should be created by the Dodgers, who face a starter in Ariel Jurado that owns a strikeout rate of just 8.5% in his six starts this season. That’s awful. L.A. should generate plenty of traffic on the base paths tonight and one or two big innings could help set up the over, which is 4-1 in Jurado’s last five starts.
Prediction: Over 11
969 Detroit Tigers at 970 Kansas City Royals, 7:15 p.m. CT
This is the one under I like tonight. The Tigers aren’t contending so people outside of Detroit haven’t noticed, but Matt Boyd has put together a solid season. He doesn’t walk many batters (7.3%) and has posted a healthy strikeout rate of 21.9% in his 25 starts this season. Boyd will also face a weak Kansas City offense in a pitcher-friendly park. On the other side of the pitching matchup is Jake Junis, who also owns solid strikeout (21.9%) and walk (6.6%) rates. He struggles with home runs but the Tigers don’t hit many long balls so it’s a great matchup to take the under, which is drawing 91% of the money wagered at online sportsbooks.
Prediction: Under 8.5
Season Prediction Records
MLB: 29-11 (+1,690.00)
*Based on projected $100.00 wagers