Season Results: I went 2-1 on Tuesday night, with my only loss again stemming from taking the Cardinals-Dodgers over. Once again the two teams had opportunities to score plenty of runs to get over the 8.5-run total but alas, it didn’t happen. My other two plays (Braves-Pirates under 7.5 and Royals-Rays under 7) both won, which brings my season record up to 26-8.
Here’s what I like on Wednesday…
971 Kansas City Royals at 972 Tampa Bay Rays, 6:10 p.m. CT
The 14 combined people in the stands at Tropicana Field the last two nights have been treated to an offensive explosion that featured a combined one run on Monday night and a total of five runs last night. Neither of these teams can hit and oddsmakers can’t make the total low enough (it opened at 7.5 for the game tonight and has dropped to 7). The under is 10-1 in the Rays’ last 11 games overall, is 8-0 in their last eight games when facing a right-handed starter, and is 7-2-1 in Ryne Stanek’s last 10 home outings. I took the under in this matchup last night and I’m going back to the well tonight.
Prediction: Royals/Rays under 7
961 St. Louis Cardinals at 962 Los Angeles Dodgers, 9:10 p.m. CT
Clearly, I don’t have a good handle on this series as I’m 4-2 overall during the last two nights and both losses came from the two previous Cards-Dodgers match-ups. That said, losing those games won’t deter me from making a pick on a total that I like, and I like the under here.
Despite some of the advanced metrics indicating a regression towards the mean for Austin Gomber and Daniel Poncedeleon, the Dodgers couldn’t string much together against either Cardinal starter. Coupled with Mike Shildt’s shrewd moves with the STL bullpen, the Dodgers were held to a combined five runs in the first two games of this series. Now L.A. faces the best of the Cards’ rookie starters in Jack Flaherty, who owns a dazzling 3.05 ERA. (His 3.81 FIP and 3.40 xFIP are both higher than his ERA but still very good.)
Meanwhile, L.A. youngster Walker Buehler has been very good this season as well. Buehler’s strikeout rate (26.5%), walk rate (6.0%) and ground ball rate (49.1%) are all excellent. If there was going to be one pitcher’s duel in this series, I would have predicted that this matchup would have been the one to be low-scoring.
The under is 35-17 in the last 52 meetings between these two teams and is 5-1 in the last six meetings in L.A. Finally, in Chad Fairchild’s 22 games behind home plate, the under is 14-8 (63.6%).
Prediction: Cardinals/Dodgers under 7.5
Season Prediction Records
MLB: 26-8 (+1,720.00)
*Based on projected $100.00 wagers
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