It was another winning night here in “From the Betting Window,” as I went 2-1 with my three selections, running my season MLB record to 34-13 (72%). Interesting enough, the play I liked the best (Indians-Twins over) was the one I missed. Fortunately, the Yankees-White Sox under was never in doubt and thanks to an 11-run seventh inning for the Red Sox, the Miami-Boston over won easily as well.
Tonight, not only do we have a few baseball plays, but Week 1 of the college football season also kicks off so let’s get it…
963 Detroit Tigers at 964 New York Yankees, 6:05 p.m. CT
I hit the under in last night’s White Sox-Yankees game as the Bombers could only muster one run against a struggling Chicago pitching staff. This time the Tigers are in town and I like the under again, which is a perfect 5-0 in the Yankees’ last five games. While this New York lineup is still dangerous, it’s also depleted without Aaron Judge and Didi Gregorius. Meanwhile, J.A. Happ is in excellent form (27.2% strikeout rate, 7.2% walk rate, 30.4% hard-contract rate) and will face a Tigers lineup that strikes out a ton against left-handed pitching.
Prediction: Under 9
955 Chicago Cubs at 956 Atlanta Braves, 6:35 p.m. CT
With an xFIP of 4.45 but an ERA of 3.62, there’s some regression coming for Cubs’ starter Mike Montgomery. That said, he does an excellent job at keeping the ball on the ground (52.8% groundball rate), which will be vital tonight pitching against a Braves offense that is loaded with fly-ball hitters. On the other side, Mike Foltynewicz is amid a career season for the Braves. The Cubs own a 24% strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers, so it’ll be challenging for Chicago to create much damage against Foltynewicz, who has an outstanding K-rate of 28.4%. (More batters heading back to the dugout instead of first base is what we want to see when it comes to plays involving the under.) Speaking of which, the under is 15-6 in the Cubs’ last 21 games and cashed in nine of the Braves’ last 11 games as well.
Prediction: Under 8.5
957 Arizona Diamondbacks at 958 Los Angeles Dodgers, 9:10 p.m. CT
Robbie Ray likes to throw a lot of pitches outside of the strike zone hoping for hitters to chase. This will work against an undisciplined offense but the Dodgers crush left-handed pitching (36% hard contact rate) and they don’t strikeout much. Arizona also mashes left-handed pitching itself, so with Rich Hill on the mound for L.A., I like the over. Hill has pitched very well for the Dodgers but A.J. Pollock, Paul Goldschmidt and David Peralta could be difficult to navigate tonight. The over is a perfect 7-0 in the last seven meetings between these two teams when the game is played at Dodger Stadium. The over is also 6-0 in Hill’s last six starts versus the Diamondbacks and 5-0 in Ray’s last five outings against the Dodgers.
Prediction: Over 8
139 Wake Forest vs. 140 Tulane, 7:00 p.m. CT
Tulane has a ton of question marks on defense, but the Green Wave’s offense should be fun to watch this season thanks to quarterback Jonathan Banks and four-star transfer Corey Dauphine. On the other side, Wake Forest will be tasked with replacing John Wolford under center and true freshman Sam Hartman has received plenty of praise for his maturity this offseason. That said, the bottom line is that he’s a true frosh starting his first college game on the road. This is a lot of points to hand a Wake Forest team that will be forced to deal with an underrated Tulane offense.
Prediction: Tulane +6.5
135 Northwestern vs. 136 Purdue, 7:00 p.m. CT
Jeff Brohm did an outstanding job in his first year at Purdue, which is something Mizzou fans, unfortunately, found out as the Boilermakers throttled the Tigers in Columbia early last year. That said, the Boilermakers’ defense was their strength a year ago and they lost a plethora of starters to graduation. In fact, according to SB Nation, Purdue is nearly dead-last in returning production in the country. Meanwhile, Northwestern quarterback Clayton Thorson is recovering from knee surgery, but he will play and reportedly looks good. He already has three years of starting experience under his belt and I’m expecting him to make big plays tonight against this inexperienced Purdue defense.
Prediction: Northwestern +1
Season Prediction Records
MLB: 34-13 (72%)
College Football: 0-0