Major League Baseball

From the Betting Window: Total Set Too Low in One of Sunday’s NL Central Matchups?

Yesterday’s Results: We’re off to a good start. Yesterday was the first time I posted predictions for “From the Betting Window” and we hit all three. The over in the Cardinals-Pirates game hit by the top of the fifth inning, the Diamondbacks routed the Giants 9-3, and the Tigers-A’s under was never in doubt as the two clubs combined for just three runs. If only they could all be that easy.

Onto Sunday’s plays…

Braves (-130) at Mets (+120), 12:10 p.m. CT

Plenty of casual baseball bettors will survey the pitching matchups, look at the names and move on without taking a deeper dive. Take today’s Braves-Mets matchup for example. Julio Teheran was rocked for nine runs by the Marlins two starts ago and then allowed three runs on four hits over just five innings to that same Miami team in his last outing. Meanwhile, somebody named Corey Oswalt is starting for the Mets.

Pass, right?

Despite Teheran’s struggles of late, the Braves are 4-1 in his last five road starts against the Mets. Over the past three seasons, Teheran owns a 3-1 record and has posted a 1.93 ERA at Citi Field. For one reason or another, he loves pitching at this ballpark and with Atlanta just -130 on the money line, I see value in the Braves rebounding from their 3-0 loss to the Mets on Saturday.

Prediction: Braves -130

Rockies (-106) at Brewers (-110), 1:10 p.m. CT

These two teams combined for 12 runs on Saturday night, with Milwaukee scoring six runs alone in the bottom of the first inning. While the over might not cash as easily today, I still envision a high-scoring contest.

Jon Gray has thrown three consecutive quality starts while Wade Miley owns a 1.53 ERA in his six starts for the Brewers. Given the success of these two pitchers, the total is only sitting at 8.5. So why the over?

For starters, we all know Miller is a hitter-friendly park. Adrian Johnson is also behind home plate today and in his 19 games behind the dish this season, the average ERA of pitchers is 5.30 while hitters are averaging .270. Not surprisingly, the over is an eye-popping 15-4 in those 19 games.

Miley could also be in store for some negative regression. His 1.53 ERA doesn’t jive with his 3.65 FIP nor his 4.82 xFIP. The over is also 6-2-1 in Gray’s last nine starts and 8-1-2 in his last 11 outings on the road.

Prediction: Rockies/Brewers over 8.5

Reds (+135) at Nationals (-150), 12:35 p.m. CT

Bryce Harper said following Saturday’s game that he wasn’t sure if he would be in that Nationals’ lineup on Sunday. He was hit in the knee by a pitch late in Saturday’s doubleheader and might not be available, leaving the Nats without one of their best hitters.

Meanwhile, Luis Castillo snapped a five-start winless streak by dominating the Phillies in his last start. The 25-year-old has surrendered three or fewer runs in each of his last five outings and has posted a 25:4 strikeout-to-walk ratio over that span.

On the other side of the pitching matchup today is Tanner Roark, who has allowed a total of one run and seven hits while striking out 18 across 15 total innings versus the Brewers and Mets.

The total for this game has already dropped from 9.5 down to 9. Despite not getting the best number, I still like the combined score to fall under the total of 9.

Prediction: Reds/Nationals under 9

Prediction Records

MLB: 3-0 (+$300.00)*

*Based on projected $100.00 wagers

More: From the Betting Window: A Quick Explanation of Betting on Baseball