Major League Baseball

From the Betting Window: Two Monday MLB Overs and an Under

Didn’t get a chance to write a column yesterday but I did hand out one selection on “The Turn” and Twitter, which was the Cardinals-Nationals over 9.5. It cashed, running my baseball record to 41-20 (67.0%).

Here’s what I like on Wednesday…

957 New York Mets at 958 Los Angeles Dodgers, 6:35 p.m. CT
These two teams combined for 15 runs last night but tonight should be more of a pitcher’s duel in L.A. The concern for the under is the Dodgers’ offense, which accounted for 11 of those 15 runs last night. That said, Mets’ starter Zack Wheeler has been impressive in his 26 starts this season, posting a strikeout rate of 24% and a soft contact rate of 24%, which is elite. The Dodgers can do some damage against right-handed pitching but Wheeler has been tough on both lefties and righties this season. On the other side of the starting pitching matchup is Hyun-Jin Ryu, who owns an elite strikeout rate of 28.6% of his 10 starts in 2018. The Mets have been tough on the Dodger lefties this series but strikeout 28% of the time against left-handed pitching as a whole. The under is 4-1 in Ryu’s last five starts and is 6-1 in the Dodgers’ last seven games.
Prediction: Under 7

967 Los Angeles Angels at 968 Texas Rangers, 7:05 p.m. CT
One of these starts Jaime Barria is going to get touched up. While he owns a 3.46 ERA, his 4.44 FIP and 4.65 xFIP project a regression coming (especially with an 18.4% strikeout rate and a hard-contract rate of 37%). I’m willing to bet that the regression is coming tonight in Arlington in a hitter-friendly environment. Meanwhile, Bartolo Colon doesn’t strike out many batters and he’s getting hit hard at a rate of 44%. It’s expected to be warm and humid in Arlington tonight, which means the ball should fly. I love the over in this matchup.
Prediction: Over 10.5

959 Chicago Cubs at 960 Milwaukee Brewers, 7:10 p.m. CT
This is another over that I like on tonight’s slate. Jose Quintana is still having problems with his control and is striking batters out at only a 20.4% clip. The Brewers have a ton of right-handed power that could cause issues for Quintana, especially in hitter-friendly Miller Park tonight. On the other side is Jhoulys Chacin, who struggles against left-handed hitters. As Cardinal fans are aware, the Cubs are loaded with lefties, including Daniel Murphy, Anthony Rizzo, Kyle Schwarber and switch-hitter Ian Happ. The Cubs had a quiet night offensively last night but this is a prime bounceback opportunity.
Prediction: Over 9

Season Predictions
MLB: 41-20 (67.0%)
College Football: 6-2 (75.0%)

More: McLaughlin Talks Whether the Cards Would Use Wainwright in a Late-Inning Role