Following a shaky start to the night, it was a 3-1 finish for my plays Tuesday. Here’s what I like Wednesday…
923 Miami Marlins at 924 Boston Red Sox, 5:35 p.m. CT
I took the over in this matchup last night and the win looked in doubt when the two clubs combined for just five runs in the first six innings. (The over was 10.5, so the score was well off the pace.) Then the floodgates opened as the Marlins scored five runs in the top of the eighth and the Red Sox added three of their own in the bottom of the frame to cash the over. I see tonight’s matchup as high-scoring as well. Trevor Richards walks too many hitters (10.4%) and his 41.7% hard contact rate is an issue, especially against a dangerous Boston offense playing at Fenway. On the other side is David Price, who faces a Miami offense that doesn’t strike out much against left-handed pitching (21.7%). J.T. Realmuto, Starlin Castro and Brian Anderson should provide enough offense to help push the total over again tonight.
Prediction: Over 10
915 Chicago White Sox at 916 New York Yankees, 6:05 p.m. CT
The White Sox-Yankees over was my only loss of Tuesday night and the two teams nearly pulled off a miracle win by racking up a bunch of late runs in the final two innings. Nevertheless, I’m on the side of this matchup tonight. The White Sox are the owners of the highest strikeout rate in the league (26.5%) this season and CC Sabathia has been generating plenty of strikeouts lately (27 in his last three starts, to be exact). Taking the over when Reynaldo Lopez has struggled for Chicago makes me a little uneasy but the bottom line is I don’t see the White Sox contributing enough to the run total to push this one over.
Prediction: Under 9.5
919 Minnesota Twins at 920 Cleveland Indians, 6:10 p.m. CT
I don’t know what is it about the last two nights but I’ve been drawn to overs in games that have high totals. Usually, that’s not a recipe for success but I like what I like. Kohl Stewart has made three starts this season for the Twins. He doesn’t strike many batters out (15.0%), he walks hitters at an 11.7% clip, and he gets hit hard (38.1%). Oh, and he’s facing a Cleveland offense that mashes. The question is whether or not the Twins can contribute enough offense to help push the score over the total. Adam Plutko is the opposite of Stewart in that he doesn’t walk many batters (7.8%) but he too gets hit hard (36.2%). Lefties specifically hammer him, as he’s allowed 12 home runs this season and eight came off the bat of left-handers. Minnesota has a couple of good lefties in Eddie Rosario and Max Kepler, as well as a switch-hitting cleanup hitter in Jorge Polanco and a tough righty in Miguel Sano. This is one of my favorite plays of the night.
Prediction: Over 10
Season Prediction Records
MLB: 32-12
College Football: 0-0
More: Analysts Have Cardinals in WC Game, but the NL Race Is Still Tight Entering September