Last week stunk. I tweeted three MLB plays last Thursday, all of which lost, and then I went 1-3 with my college football plays on Saturday.
It happens. It’s over. I wrote when I started this column that there would be weeks like this. Let’s move on and try to find some winners on Monday to start the week right.
917 Baltimore Orioles at 918 Boston Red Sox, 6:10 p.m. CT
Dylan Bundy and Nathan Eovaldi are starting tonight at freaking Fenway and the line has actually moved down from 9.5 to 8? Makes no sense, until you look at the weather report and realize it’ll be cold and the wind will be blowing in from right field. The Orioles continue to roll out one of the worst lineups in baseball and while the Red Sox are always scary, they also have nothing to play for having already wrapped up the American League East crown. This pick already scares the hell out of me because the Red Sox can easily score nine runs on their own, but this game has sneaky under potential.
Prediction: Under 8
905 Milwaukee Brewers at 906 St. Louis Cardinals, 7:15 p.m. CT
Sweet, a bullpen game for the Brewers. Surely these Cardinal hitters will fare well against pitchers they haven’t seen and there isn’t a ton of video to break down. (Hopefully, you’re picking up on the sarcasm.) Meanwhile, Jack Flaherty has been sensational. He owns an elite strikeout rate of 30.1% and while the Brewers do have a dangerous lineup, Flaherty has held both righties and lefties in check over his 25 starts this season. Oh, and he’s pitching at Busch, where the under is 6-2 in his last eight outings. (The under is also 4-0 in Flaherty’s last four starts versus the Brewers overall.)
Prediction: Under 8
907 Philadelphia Phillies at 908 Colorado Rockies, 7:40 p.m. CT
Zach Eflin has a healthy strikeout rate (21.7%), a healthy walk rate (6.1%), and is allowing hard-contact at 28.7%, which is excellent. But he draws a start tonight at Coors Field and has struggled with lefties. That’s problematic tonight when he’ll face the likes of Charlie Blackmon, David Dahl, and Carlos Gonzalez. (Nolan Arenado also mashes, regardless of who is on the mound.) On the other side is Jon Gray, who owns a 12% walk rate and 57% groundball rate over his last two starts. He’s got more talent than the numbers indicate but the bottom line is that he has struggled lately. The over is 4-1 in the last five meetings between these two teams.
Prediction: Over 10.5
MLB: 51-30-1 (63%)
College Football: 10-10 (50%)