On Saturday, I hit two of my three college football plays, although not without some help. When Notre Dame raced out to a 21-10 halftime lead against Michigan, my under 46 looked cooked. But the two teams combined for just 10 points in the second half, which helped cash the under.
It was a similar situation in the Louisville-Alabama game, as the over didn’t hit until the Cardinals scored a garbage touchdown in the closing minutes. Granted, Alabama missed a chip shot field goal, an extra point, and had a punt return for a touchdown called back due to a penalty, so this was hardly a fortunate win.
My first college football loss of the season was Washington +2.5, as the Huskies stumbled offensively all day against Auburn. I also went 1-1 with my MLB totals, hitting the Rockies-Padres under 7 but losing the Braves-Pirates over 8.5. I’m now 36-18 in baseball and 5-1 in college football.
Here’s what I like on Sunday…
901 Milwaukee Brewers at 902 Washington Nationals, 12:35 p.m. CT
Junior Guerra owns a healthy strikeout rate (21.3%) this season but he walks too many hitters (13.7%) and he’s been hit hard this season (33.5% hard-contact rate). He’s also struggled with left-handed batters this season and will face a talented Nationals offense that features Bryce Harper and Juan Soto. On the other side of the starting pitching matchup is Jefry Rodriguez, who also owns a high walk rate (12.9%) and he too has struggled against lefties, albeit in a small eight-game big-league sample. Jesus Aguilar, Mike Moustakas, Christian Yelich, Ryan Braun, Travis Shaw and Lorenzo Cain should give Rodriguez fits today.
Prediction: Over 9.5
921 Minnesota Twins at 922 Texas Rangers, 2:05 p.m. CT
The total for this game is sitting at 12, which is usually reserved for Coors Field. Globe Life Park in Arlington can play like Coors at times, however, and I don’t expect there to be much quality pitching in Texas today. The Rangers will face Gabriel Moya early before the Twins turn the game over to Zach Littell, who hasn’t had much success thus far in his big league career. The Rangers offer power in their lineup and they’ll supply their own mediocre pitching in starter Yohander Mendez. The over is 4-1-1 in the last six meetings between these two teams and 6-2-1 in the last nine meetings in Arlington.
Prediction: Over 12
217 Miami Hurricanes vs. 218 LSU Tigers, 6:30 p.m. CT
I’m fading the Kevin Wheelers tonight. Ohio State graduate transfer Joe Burrow gives LSU’s offense more hope of being balance, although I don’t expect Burrow to throw all over Miami’s secondary, which is the Canes’ strength. To me, this matchup is more about Miami quarterback Malik Rosier, who struggled against tough defenses a year ago. The Hurricanes will struggle to move the ball tonight against linebacker Devin White and cornerback Greedy Williams, who are both projected to be top 15 picks in next April’s NFL draft. Outside linebacker K’Lavon Chaisson will also be a handful for Miami’s offensive line. In a tight game, I’m taking LSU.
Prediction: LSU +3
MLB: 36-18 (67%)
College Football: 5-1 (83%)