Major League Baseball | St. Louis Cardinals

Thursday Pick-Six: Will the Cards Step Out of Their Comfort Zone This Deadline?

Bill DeWitt Jr. Main-11

Anthony Stalter’s stream of consciousness on local and national sports news:

  1. In the midst of another frustrating season, let’s take a moment…

…to appreciate what the Cardinals have accomplished under the current front office. Heading into the 2017 season, the Cardinals’ record over the past 10 years (2007 to 2016) is 892-728, good for a .551 winning percentage. Only the Yankees’ mark of .564 is better over that 10-year span. How have the Cards achieved such sustained success? By having one trait that most successful organizations posses: A steadfast belief in the long view when it comes to acquiring talent. Some organizations change their philosophy every other year. They never establish a culture that their stockholders (i.e. fans) and players can trust. They eschew the long view for quick fixes that lead them right back to failure. But not the Cardinals under Bill DeWitt Jr. You don’t win at a .551 clip for 10 years without keen scouting evaluation, drafting, and development. Where many other organizations have been forced to deal with bad contracts, the Cards have avoided those long-term free agent sinkholes that would preclude them from making future moves. Fans complain about the front office not making a bold move, but their risk-adverse mindset has also led to sustained success. All of that being said…

  1. …Will the Cards tweak their philosophy in order to upgrade their roster?

It’s easier to avoid big-money free-agent acquisitions and to horde your top prospects when you already have Albert Pujols or Matt Holliday sitting in the middle of your lineup. The Cards’ current roster is chockfull of solid pieces. What’s missing is that middle-of-the-order presence that elevates those solid pieces. Now how do they find that presence? We know the problem, but what’s the solution? Trading for Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yelich or Marcell Ozuna? Sounds great, but it’s  moot to discuss those players if DeWitt Jr. and Co. aren’t willing to step out of their comfort zone. Those three players would cost either money or top prospects to acquire. No team was more profitable than the Cards last season, but that doesn’t mean they’ll open their checkbook. They’re also rich in prospects, but that doesn’t mean they’ll part with several of those pieces in order to acquire that missing piece. In fact, they haven’t since John Mozeliak acquired Matt Holliday. This front office’s track record suggests that smaller, risk-adverse moves are ahead. That might anger you as a fan, but I’m playing the odds here. Speaking of which…

  1. …I’d bet good money the Cards won’t acquire Stanton.

Bob Nightengale of USA Today wrote last week that the Marlins are hemorrhaging money, projected to lose $62 million this season. Nightengale also reports that the Marlins “are carrying a debt of about $500 million” that’s increasing by the year and owns a “staggering $488 million in future salary commitments.” He indicated to “The Fast Lane” earlier this week that if a team would be willing to take on Stanton’s contract, the Marlins would part with the outfielder without receiving top prospects in return. (Stanton also has a no-trade clause in his contract, so he would have to sign off on any deal.) Stanton is owed $77 million over the next three seasons, after which he can opt out of his contract. If he doesn’t opt out, he’ll be owned at least $218 million through 2027. After balking at Max Scherzer’s asking price and finishing as the runner-up in both the David Price and Jason Heyward bidding wars (thank the baseball gods), do you actually believe the Cards will be willing to spend $218 million on one player? I don’t. They’re not touching that contract, especially if they want to at least be in position to seriously pursue Manny Machado after the 2018 season. No, the Marlins’ outfielder that would make more sense…

  1. …is Yelich, who signed a seven-year, $49.5 million contract in March of 2015.

That contract is more the Cardinals’ speed. Mozeliak also doesn’t make it a habit to acquire players when they trade value is at their highest. With the Marlins up to their ears in debt and Yelich struggling by his standards (his wRC+ is 104 but he finished with a wRC+ of 130 in 2016), now is the perfect time for the Cards to kick the tires. Baseball American released its 2017 Midseason Top 100 Prospects list earlier this month and the Marlins didn’t have a single player listed. Granted, the ranking is subjective but Baseball American can’t be too far off. Would a package that featured Luke Weaver (who is No. 65 on that list, by the way) allow the Cards to land a young, cost-controlled player like Yelich at the deadline? Maybe not, but given what we know about how the Cards operate, Yelich is a more reasonable target than Stanton. This won’t appease fans that have zeroed in on Stanton and believe Yelich is nothing more than Stephen Piscotty, but I’m trying to be pragmatic.

  1. Ever since Dunc and I became adamant that Michael Wacha…

…should be placed in the bullpen, the Cards’ starter has shoved. On Tuesday night in New York, Wacha completed his first career complete game shutout by striking out Jay Bruce on his 119th pitch of the game. His fastball reached 98 miles per hour with that pitch. Wacha had an 8.17 ERA over a six-game stretch from mid-May to mid-June. During that time, Dunc and I, as well as other talking heads, suggested the Cards should move him into the pen for good. Since that point, Wacha has won four straight games and dominated the opposition in every outing. In his last four starts, he owns a 1.01 ERA and has averaged more than six innings per start. After throwing a career-high 119 pitches (he had never thrown more than 115 pitches in a game before last night), it’ll be interesting to see if fatigue is an issue for Wacha when he faces the Cubs on Sunday night. As Dunc has noted, Wacha has a track record of struggling with fatigue as the season wears on. Sunday night is big for the right-hander but for now, I’ll happily keep my mouth corked when it comes to moving Wacha out of the rotation.

  1. Two years ago I remember the talk was how the quarterback play…

…in the NFL was down. I wonder how those same people feel now. Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, Joe Flacco, Russell Wilson, Eli Manning and Ben Roethlisberger have won at least one Super Bowl. Cam Newton and Matt Ryan finished as runner-ups in the NFL title game. Philip Rivers, Andrew Luck, Carson Palmer and Alex Smith have played in conference title games. Now, even the staunchest football fans wouldn’t tune in to watch all of those quarterbacks. Hell, even Mark Sanchez played in multiple AFC title games, so what does that mean? Still, 13 current starters have played at elite levels at some point during their career. Also, that list doesn’t include other intriguing signal-callers like Derek Carr, Jameis Winston, Dak Prescott and Matthew Stafford. The point is, it wasn’t too long ago when fans were complaining about the level of quarterback play in the NFL. Now I’d argue it hasn’t been this good in years. Should make for an interesting 2017 season.

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