It was a profitable night for “From the Betting Window” on Monday, as the Dodgers-Reds cashed the over by the bottom of the fourth inning while the Braves and Giants combined for just five total runs to hit the under. My only loss was the Indians-Rays under 7, which was in trouble as soon as Corey Kluber surrendered four runs in the bottom of the second. (My Nationals-Phillies over was postponed.)
With the 2-1 night, my MLB record on the year is now 47-22-1. Here’s what I like on Tuesday…
967 Oakland A’s at 968 Baltimore Orioles, 6:05 p.m. CT
The A’s get a fantastic matchup against Baltimore starter Alex Cobb, who owns a 15.3% strikeout rate, a 32.5% hard-contract rate, and struggles with both right-handed and left-handed bats equally. The A’s offense also benefit from moving away from their spacious home park to Oriole Park at Camden Yards, which in turn hurts their starter, Mike Fiers. Fiers has pitched well since joining the A’s but a lot of his outings have come at home. While the Orioles offense is one of the least-imposing in baseball, FIers will be pitching in home run-friendly Camden Yards. I’ll take the chance that the Orioles contribute enough offense to push the total over.
Prediction: Over 9
971 Toronto Blue Jays at 972 Boston Red Sox, 6:10 p.m. CT
This is a sneaky over play. Chris Sale makes his return from the disabled list tonight and while he’s one of the elite arms in baseball, the Red Sox will play it safe. He’s going to be capped at 40 pitches tonight and then Boston will turn the game over to Nathan Eovaldi. The Blue Jays will benefit from hitting at Fenway, which is a pure hitter’s park. On the other side is Ryan Borucki, who doesn’t walk anyone but strikes hitters out at just a 14.5% clip. The Red Sox should tee off on the Toronto starter tonight.
Prediction: Over 9
959 Pittsburgh Pirates at 960 St. Louis Cardinals, 7:15 p.m. CT
Joe Musgrove has been tough on right-handed hitters and the Cardinals are loaded with right-handers throughout their lineup. His strikeout rate is only 20.3% but he doesn’t walk many batters (4.8%). If he can limit the damage from left-handers Matt Carpenter and Matt Adams, he should be able to corral the rest of the Cards’ right-handed batters. It’s a similar situation for Miles Mikolas, who is a low-strikeout pitcher that also doesn’t walk anybody and will benefit from pitching tonight at Busch Stadium. These teams combined for 15 runs last night but I see the opposite playing out tonight, especially with Jeff Nelson behind home plate. The under is 15-6 in Nelson’s last 21 games behind the dish.
Prediction: Under 7.5
Season Records
MLB: 47-22-1 (68%)
College Football: 7-5 (58%)
More: Miklasz – Adam Wainwright at Age 37: It’s Complicated, Awkward, Emotional, Inevitable